What Liverpool Need vs. Aston Villa to Qualify for the Champions League

Liverpool travel to Villa Park having left the door ajar for their Champions League rivals.

Liverpool are ever so close to qualifying for Europe’s premier competition. | Liverpool FC/Getty Images

It was unthinkable at the start of the season that Liverpool would find themselves uncertain of Champions League qualification with just two matches remaining. Yet, here we are.

Even with a top-five Premier League finish being enough to get into the competition, Liverpool are yet to secure that place. The Reds are given a 96.8% chance of sealing Champions League qualification by stat experts Opta, but nerves will continue to jangle until it’s mathematically confirmed.

Fixtures away at Aston Villa and at home to Brentford are all that remain of the club’s dire 2025–26 campaign, Arne Slot and his players desperate to wrap up their place in the top five before a final day showdown with the Bees at Anfield.

Here’s how Liverpool can qualify for Europe’s leading competition this Friday against Villa.

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How Liverpool Can Qualify for Champions League

Liverpool need a good showing. | Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images

The assignment is clear for Liverpool: win at Villa Park to qualify for the Champions League. Three points is all that is required for the Reds from their final two matches, meaning a triumph on Friday night means they cannot be caught by chasers Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion.

Villa also know victory is enough for them to secure their own Champions League berth, with Unai Emery’s side currently only behind Liverpool on goal difference. They will be highly motivated in their last home match of the season, even if one eye could wander to next Wednesday’s Europa League final against Freiburg. Victory there would also deliver Champions League qualification for Villa.

A draw could be enough for Liverpool. A stalemate would take them to 60 points, five ahead of Bournemouth and seven clear of Brighton having played a game more. If the former were then unable to beat Manchester City on their own patch next Tuesday, Liverpool’s lead would be unassailable.

Even a defeat could see Liverpool certain of qualification prior to the final day, but they would be reliant on slips elsewhere. Lose at Villa Park and the Reds would need Brighton to fail to beat Leeds United on Sunday, and Bournemouth to then lose against Man City.

If Brighton win this weekend, Bournemouth beat or draw with Man City and Liverpool lose at Villa, then Slot’s side would be forced to wait until the final day to clinch qualification. The Reds would at least still remain in control of their own destiny, needing to beat Brentford.

The maximum points Liverpool can finish on is 65. Even successive wins over Aston Villa and Brentford would leave them 19 short of last season’s Premier League-winning total.

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Premier League Table in Race for Champions League Qualification

Position	Club	Goal Difference	Points	Remaining Fixtures
4.	Liverpool	+12	59	Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H)
5.	Aston Villa	+4	59	Liverpool (H), Man City (A)
6.	Bournemouth	+4	55	Man City (H), Nottingham Forest (A)
7.	Brighton	+10	53	Leeds (A), Man Utd (H)

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