Why Real Madrid’s Champions League Playoff Draw Is Trickier Than It Looks

A tough road in the knockout stage stands between Los Blancos and their 16th Champions League title.

Real Madrid have revenge on the mind. | Patricia De Melo Moreira/AFP/Getty Images

Real Madrid will face off with Benfica in the Champions League knockout phase playoffs, a matchup that could end in redemption or complete humiliation.

The 15-time European champions sat comfortably in third of the league phase standings ahead of Matchday 8, needing a win against José Mourinho’s side to automatically qualify for the round of 16. A draw would also have solidified a top-eight finish, given Los Blancos’ mighty goal difference.

Yet Álvaro Arbeloa’s men were completely outclassed at the Estádio da Luz and suffered a dismal 4–2 defeat, dropping them to ninth in the standings and therefore forcing them to kick off the knockout stage in the playoffs.

The club was guaranteed to face either Bodø/Glimt or Benfica, and the draw handed them the worse of the two possibilities—a Benfica side now brimming with confidence and the knowledge of how exactly to best Real Madrid.

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Benfica Now Have the Blueprint to Exploit Real Madrid

José Mourinho came back to haunt Real Madrid. | Carlos Rodrigues/Getty Images

Prior to Wednesday’s clash, Real Madrid were the comfortable favorites to walk away with three points against Benfica. After all, the Portuguese outfit had suffered five defeats in the league phase and scored just six goals.

By the time the final whistle sounded in Lisbon, the hosts had found the back of the net four times, mustered 22 shots with just 33% possession and kept Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham and Franco Mastantuono quiet. Sure, Kylian Mbappé recorded a brace, but there have not been many teams this season to deny the Frenchman.

Benfica will be confident in their ability to replicate their performance, considering the playoffs kick off just two weeks after the league phase finale. Not only will Los Blancos not have their injured defenders—Antonio Rüdiger, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy—back to full health at that point, but they also will be without the suspended Raúl Asencio, weakening their backline even further.

Benfica v Real Madrid. Reload it. pic.twitter.com/VO9AOIH6K8

— Sports Illustrated FC (@SI_FootballClub) January 30, 2026

The likes of Andreas Schjelderup and Vangelis Pavlidis will love their chances going against such a whimpering defense. Plus, Rodrygo is also suspended for the clash after being sent off in stoppage time, leaving Arbeloa shorthanded up top as well.

Even missing several key faces, Real Madrid will hope they can turn their form around enough to beat a team they should—in theory—get past. But if Mourinho can get his team to lock down nearly the entirety of Los Blancos’ attack, come to life in transition and play with tangible passion, the manager might just be able to lead his team to another upset over his former club, especially if the Spanish giants once again come out flat, sloppy and determined to pass the ball sideways for much of the encounter.

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Real Madrid’s Potential Route to the Final Contains Familiar Adversaries

Getting past Benfica is just the beginning for Real Madrid. Should the Spanish giants punch their tickets to the round of 16, they then have much more difficult teams standing in their way.

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Possible Round of 16 Opponents

Man City bested Real Madrid back in December. | Oscar Del Pozo/AFP/Getty Images

• Sporting CP
• Manchester City

It goes without saying that Man City is the team Los Blancos will hope to avoid in the round of 16. The two European giants already faced off in the league phase, and Pep Guardiola’s men walked away with a 2–1 victory—and that was before the English outfit signed Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi.

The Cityzens will also be eager to avenge their elimination last season, when Real Madrid knocked them out of the competition in the knockout phase playoffs.

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Possible Quarterfinal Opponents

Arsenal eliminated Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals last season. | Oscar J. Barroso/Europa Press/Getty Images

• Arsenal
• Bayern Munich
• Borussia Dortmund
• Atalanta

Things will only get harder for Real Madrid if they make it to the quarterfinals. Los Blancos would have to likely face Arsenal, who finished the league phase without dropping a point, or Bayern Munich, a team with just two defeats across all competitions this season.

Going against either side makes Real Madrid the underdog, a status the 15-time European champions are not used to when it comes to their favorite competition. They would of course rather match up with Borussia Dortmund or Atalanta, though either option seems hopeful at best.

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Possible Semifinal Opponents

Lamine Yalam (left) and Kylian Mbappé could meet again in the Champions League semifinals. | Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto/Getty Images

• Paris Saint-Germain
• Monaco
• Barcelona
• Chelsea
• Galatasaray
• Juventus
• Liverpool
• Tottenham Hotspur

There are a slew of teams Real Madrid could potentially square off with in the Champions League semifinals, but none are more dangerous than defending European champions PSG or bitter rivals Barcelona. PSG previously defeated Los Blancos 4–0 in the Club World Cup semifinals, and the Catalans are still riding the high of their Spanish Super Cup triumph over Real Madrid.

The Madrid-based outfit would hope to also avoid Liverpool, another team that already defeated them in 2025–26. With the club’s recent inability to best English opposition, Chelsea pose a hefty threat as well.

Only a run reminiscent of their previous European successes would see Real Madrid claim their place in the Champions League final come May.

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