U.S. Open 2026 Men’s Semifinal: Which American Will Persevere?

Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton will face off in one of the most highly anticipated matches in U.S. Open history, guaranteeing an American man will advance to the final.

Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe will face off for a place in the U.S. Open final. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While neither of the men’s U.S. Open semifinal matches will be mismatched, the ratio of attention will be wildly lopsided. First, let’s toast the two men in the top half of the draw: reliable veterans, 29 and 30, respectively, who have had very different years, but are both worthy of their spots. Alexander Zverev is not only a top seed, but has already won a major this year at Roland Garros. In New York, he got on the late train in terms of scheduling and has played only night (that is, early morning) matches. And his performances have ranged from superior to good enough.

Now, here he stands, six sets away from a second major title. His opponent is no stranger to this round; Russia’s Karen Khachanov has been ranked as high as No. 8. This year, however, has been rough sledding, as he entered the U.S. Open with a No. 50 ranking and a losing record. However, he’s come alive at the year’s fourth major. His five-setter against Learner Tien in the fourth round stands as one of the matches of the tournament. And now he returns to the semifinals to face a familiar opponent. Zverev leads their head-to-head 6–3, though two of Khachanov’s wins not only came on hard courts, but on North American soil. He will try to dictate forehand-to-forehand rallies and pick on Zverev’s second serve. Easier said than done.

No fault of his own, of course, but Zverev has benefited greatly from his draw. We’re predicting he will advance to the final without facing any top 20 opponents. Zverev defeats Khachanov in four sets. 

Alexander Zverev will look to claim the second major title of his career in New York. | REUTERS

Before the tournament, the chatter was that this would be the event that would see an American man win a major for the first time in 23 years. That prognostication has held up. And now we are guaranteed an American man in the final. Why? Because Frances Tiafoe is set to play his friend Ben Shelton in one of the most anticipated semifinal matches in recent memory, at least in New York. 

These are two flashy Americans with big ambitions. After that, the contrasts fade. A lefty vs. a righty. A potent server (Shelton) vs. a superior returner (Tiafoe). A player still in his relative tennis youth vs. a veteran wise enough to know the magnitude of this opportunity and the finite quantity of additional ones. A son of a former pro vs. the son of a club maintenance worker who emigrated from Sierra Leone.

Shelton gets the oohs and aahs for this elephant gun of a serve, but his ever-improving return game will loom large in the outcome. He has beaten Tiafoe in three of their four matches, though each has beaten the other at this tournament. We’re predicting Shelton wins on Friday, as much because of his return game as his powerful serve.

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