U.S. Open 2026 Women’s Final: Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina’s Rivalry Heats Up

Coco Gauff’s wayward overhead had barely landed behind the baseline Thursday night, and already fans at the U.S. Open were headed to the parking lot. For the first time since 2009 Wimbledon, the top four players in the women’s draw reached the semifinals of a major. Neither American—Gauff nor Jessica Pegula—emerged victorious, to the disappointment of 25,000 fans, give or take.

Strip away flags and nationality, however, and we are left with the two best players in the world vying for a title in the final. Winners of the past two hard-court majors, the top two seeds and the principals in the fiercest rivalry in the women’s game. Even the most rigid jingoists would have to admit: Aryna Sabalenka (Belarus) vs. Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan) makes for a blockbuster women’s final.

Rybakina is going for her second major title of the year, while Sabalenka is attempting a three-peat (and nearly four-peat) at Flushing Meadows. Rybakina will take over the top ranking from Sabalenka regardless of the outcome. She won the previous hard-court major in Australia, beating Sabalenka in the final. A few weeks later, again on North American hard courts, Sabalenka exacted revenge, beating Rybakina in Indian Wells, 3–6, 6–3, 7–6.

More texture? Both arrived in New York slathered in concern. In the case of Rybakina, it was for the state of her lower left leg—a rumored Achilles tear that would jeopardize her entry in the tournament. That rumor, of course, was unfounded as she blazed through the first week without dropping a set, and gritted out three-set wins in both the quarterfinals and semifinals. Now she is a match away from winning the third major of her career.

Aryna Sabalenka has yet to win a major title in 2026. | Erick W. Rasco/ Sports Illustrated

For Sabalenka, the concern was the state of her game and, by extension, her confidence. Since winning the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) in March, she has regressed and, despite her No. 1 ranking, has not won a major this year. Yet her level in New York has toggled between good enough and extraordinary. None more so than when she simply blasted Pegula off the court on Thursday night. If she brings that level of power and accuracy to Saturday’s affair, it’s hard to imagine she doesn’t three-peat.

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head, 10–7. These two players—clearly the best in the biz—are a year apart in age and will now meet for an 18th time. For perspective, that’s more encounters than Björn Borg and John McEnroe. There will be no consolation prizes. If Rybakina loses, her No. 1 ranking will perhaps feel a bit hollow. If Sabalenka loses, she will have gone a calendar year without a major for the first time since 2022, and will have been eclipsed by her rival, not just in the rankings, but in perception.

Rivalry is an essential component of tennis at the highest level. So are significant stakes. This match has both. We predict Sabalenka takes it in three.

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