Expert Picks, Bold Predictions for 2026 WNBA Playoffs

Plus, looking at the players primed for a postseason breakout and the dark horse teams who could make some noise in the first round.

Angel Reese will make her playoff debut with the Dream, who haven't won a playoff series in more than 10 years. | Dale Zanine/Imagn Images

It took until the final night of the season for seedings to be final, but the first-round matchups are set and the playoffs promise to be exciting. 

Can Cheryl Reeve take the Lynx all the way again with the No. 1 seed? Can the Fever find redemption against A’ja Wilson and the Aces with Caitlin Clark in the mix? How will Angel Reese fare in her postseason debut? And what do we make of the Liberty?

From championship picks to breakout teams and players (and a bold prediction in between), here’s how our staff thinks the 2026 WNBA playoffs will play out. 

Player primed for a breakout

Clare Brennan: Shakira Austin. She had a breakout season with the Mystics and is a huge reason why the young team is now in the playoffs. Washington ranks second in the league in paint points per game (42.9), thanks largely to Austin, so expect her to hammer teams inside. She is also the Mystics’ defensive anchor, with Washington ranking second in points allowed per game (82.5). If the Mystics can make a surprise deep run in the postseason, it will be because of Austin. 

Dan Falkenheim: Pauline Astier. Would you believe me if I told you that the French rookie has a higher usage rate in clutch situations than Veronica Burton, Courtney Williams and Austin? (She does.) Astier’s rim pressure and her playmaking off of it have been crucial for the Liberty, and she has already become one of the league’s best at driving to the basket. It’s not just her offense, though: Her compete level on the defensive end is underrated. Her moxy on both ends of the floor is tailor-made for postseason play.

Blake Silverman: Janelle Salaün. The likely Sixth Player of the Year has been incredible for the Valkyries over their standout season. Salaün is second in scoring for Golden State with 12.7 points per game, only behind Gabby Williams. And Salaün has done that in 22.1 minutes per game—all off the bench. The Valks enter the postseason hot and if they make a deep playoff run, their incredibly deep and defensive-minded roster will be the reason. Should the defense continue to carry, Golden State will need some big shots to make a run. There’s plenty of Valkyries capable of taking and making clutch three-pointers, but I’d want Salaün getting those looks if I was Natalie Nakase. 

Washington’s young core have been succeeding ahead of schedule. | Geoff Burke/Imagn Images

Dark horse team to watch

Brennan: Mystics. The self-proclaimed “young hos” are ahead of schedule, already a postseason juggernaut two seasons after drafting Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, and with Georgia Amoore, Cotie McMahon and Lauren Betts (among others) making their debuts. They may be relatively inexperienced, but this squad is fearsome and shows real fight. While Washington’s second-rated defense is its foundation, the Mystics have found ways to punish teams on the offensive end. With the second-most paint points per game in the league and perimeter threats like Citron, Sydney Johnson’s team isn’t the easiest to game plan against.   

Falkenheim: Fever. Does Indiana have a weakness that could end its playoff hopes prematurely? Yes. (What hasn’t been said about their defense at this point?) Yet, I would be slightly surprised if one of the best offenses in league history didn’t make a serious run. Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell are the closest sports manifestation of an unstoppable force, and oh, by the way, Aliyah Boston has still played like a top-15 player this year. With them, the Fever’s defense just has to be O.K. enough. Speaking of: The lineup of Clark, Mitchell, Lexie Hull, Makayla Timpson and Boston has a defensive rating of 96.4, seventh best out of 30 qualifying five-player groupings.

Silverman: Liberty. Before New York clinched its playoff spot Sunday and ended the regular season with two straight losses to Atlanta, the Liberty were on a 13–4 run. It’s been a rocky first season for new coach Chris DeMarco, but his team got hot at the right time and remains talented enough to make some noise—even as the No. 8 seed. A first-round battle against Minnesota will be incredibly difficult, New York didn’t make anything easy for itself. The Lynx have been far and away the WNBA’s best team this year and are the rightful title favorite, but a matchup against Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu in the first round is dangerous.

Bold prediction

Brennan: The Dream win their first playoff series in over 10 years. Atlanta has hit a roadblock in the postseason, getting bounced in the first round over the past three seasons. But this year is different, and with Angel Reese elevating this team, Karl Smesko’s group will finally get over the hump and advance beyond the opening round. Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray, both with something to prove, will show they are not merely two of the league’s best players, but winners, capable of rising to the occasion on the biggest stage. It won’t be easy, as the young, in-form Mystics, who have had the Dream’s number this season, await Atlanta.

Falkenheim: Olivia Miles becomes the first player in WNBA history to win Rookie of the Year and Finals MVP in the same season. To date, only two players (Cheryl Ford in 2003 and Maya Moore in 2011) have won ROTY and gone on to win the title in the same season. Part of what motivates this prediction is how listless the Lynx have looked without Miles at times. The other part is that Miles has already shown she can play at an MVP level. There’s a clear path for her to win Finals MVP if she can solve the various puzzles playoff defenses throw at her.

Silverman: We don’t get any off-court drama that takes away from the action on the court. It’s been a tiring WNBA season, from the ridiculousness of Enes Kanter Freedom and Royce White to more NSFW objects getting tossed on the court and all the trivial discourse in between. All it did was take away from what was an incredible 30th season for the league where the basketball being played could have been center stage. The tipping point came on Aug. 23 during the Fever-Sky game in Chicago where Kanter Freedom showed up and stepped onto the court toward Natasha Cloud as she shouted in his direction. Do you remember what else happened in that game? Of course not, how could you? Well, Clark made a career-high eight threes in a 37-point performance and Mitchell added 30 points of her own. Unfortunately, this has to be a bold prediction as the playoffs bring a bigger stage and brighter lights. But I can only hope that the action on the court remains front and center.  

While the Lynx have struggled toward the end of the season, most of our staff think Minnesota can reach its ceiling in the playoffs. | Jesse Johnson/Imagn Images

Champion pick 

Brennan: The Lynx. This isn’t necessarily an inspired pick, but it’s hard to deny the vibes, and it just feels like Minnesota’s year. Yes, the Lynx stumbled a bit at the end of the regular season, but I think coach Cheryl Reeve can convert that collective disappointment into a competitive edge and light a fire under her squad. Miles, if healthy, is one of the best players in the league and, despite being a rookie, doesn’t seem intimidated by big moments. Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams all have critical playoff experience and the motivation of coming so close to winning it all in 2024 and falling just short. 

Falkenheim: The Lynx. It takes a modest leap of faith to have confidence in this pick. For months, they have not been the same dominant team as they were to start the year. Since July, Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive rating (109.3). That’s on par with Fever’s during the same stretch. Collier, two months into her return, isn’t 100%. So, why are they the pick? I’m not willing to throw out how well they initially played, and I don’t think any team has shown the ceiling that Minnesota has. The Lynx have depth as well, which was on display as the bench clawed its way back in a loss to the Fever. If Miles’s calf issue isn’t ongoing, Minnesota is still set up to win it all.

Silverman: The Aces. I’ll go against the grain. If picking Vegas to repeat makes me a contrarian, that is. I’ve already mentioned Golden State and New York’s hot streaks entering the playoffs, but the Aces are the hottest team of them all. Wilson, primed to receive her record fifth MVP, remains the best player in the world. Jackie Young came back from the FIBA break with a career-high 35-point performance in a stomping of Seattle. The NaLyssa Smith injury hurts, but with the star trio of Wilson, Young and Chelsea Gray, Las Vegas will be a tough out for any team it faces—even Minnesota. And how about some potential big shotmaking from Mai Yamamoto off the bench? We can only dream so big.

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