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College Basketball Season Preview: Top transfers
3:39 | College Basketball
College Basketball Season Preview: Top transfers
Dan Hanner & Luke Winn
Friday October 17th, 2014

This week on SI.com, we've been releasing data from a college basketball statistical projection system developed by economist Dan Hanner with assistance from SI's Luke Winn. Part I featured our projected top 100 scorers, top 20 rebounders and top 20 in assists, and it contains a more in-depth description of the statistical model. Part II featured the projected top 50 freshman scorers, and part III was the top 50 breakout scorers. Today, we unveil our forecast of the top 100 transfer scorers according to raw points per game.

The most difficult players to project in college basketball are transfers. Recruiting rankings help us do a decent job of identifying high-impact freshmen, and for returning players, shot volume, efficiency, rebounding rates and assist rates are all correlated fairly highly over time. But transfers between Division I teams often perform quite differently as a result of switching coaches, teammates and offensive systems. We've adjusted their projections for changes in competition level, and plugged them into their new rotations, but don't be surprised if some players on this list significantly out- or under-perform these stats due to changes in environment.

What we're certain of is that there are a lot of important transfers in 2014-15, including players who will have big roles on potentially ranked teams. Dan Hanner ran projections on every transfer with D-I experience from the top 11 conferences -- the football power five plus the Atlantic 10, Big East, AAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West and West Coast -- and it wasn't difficult to find 100 potential rotation players.

Projected Top Transfers: 1-10
 
Rank name class pos. new team / prev. TEam PPG Prev. PPG ORTG Poss. (%)
1 Sheldon McClellan Jr. SF Miami (Fla.) / Texas 15.1 13.5 114 24
2 Jalen Jones Sr. SF Texas A&M / SMU 13.9 14.0 109 24
3 Matt Carlino Sr. PG Marquette / BYU 13.5 13.7 106 23
4 Trevor Lacey Jr. SG N.C. State / Alabama 13.1 11.3 109 23
5 Katin Reinhardt So. SG USC / UNLV 12.9 10.1 105 22
6 Julien Lewis Jr. SG Fresno State / Texas 12.6 11.2 110 22
7 Jordan Price So. SG La Salle / Auburn 12.5 5.4 105 23
8 Bryce Dejean-Jones Sr. SG Iowa State / UNLV 12.4 13.6 106 23
9 Kyle Wiltjer Jr. PF Gonzaga / Kentucky 12.3 10.2 122 22
10 Angel Rodriguez Jr. PG Miami (Fla.) / Kansas Sate 12.2 10.9 112 23

Now at Miami, Sheldon McClellan averaged 12.4 points per game in two seasons at Texas.
David E. Klutho/Sports Illustrated

Sheldon McClellan (1) played his first two seasons at Texas, where he was quietly one of the country's most efficient freshman scorers in 2011-12. The model projects him to regain that form at Miami, which lost its primary shot-taker from last season, Rion Brown, and needs McClellan and new point guard Angel Rodriguez (10) to carry a significant load. Marquette should benefit greatly from Matt Carlino's graduate transfer from BYU; the Golden Eagles got next-to-no offense out of the point-guard spot in '13-14, and will look to Carlino (3) and Deonte Burton to emerge as double-digit scorers.

Projected Top Transfers: 11-20
 
rank name class pos. new team / prev. team ppg prev. ppg ortg poss. (%)
11 Antoine Mason Sr. SG Auburn / Niagara 11.9 25.6 110 22
12 Josh Gray Jr. PG LSU / Texas Tech 11.8 9.3 102 24
13 Terry Whisnant Jr. SG East Carolina / Florida State 11.5 5.2 120 19
14 Stefan Moody Jr. PG Ole Miss / Florida Atlantic 11.4 15.7 106 24
15 Kedren Johnson Jr. PG Memphis / Vanderbilt 11.3 13.5 106 24
16 Savon Goodman Jr. SF Arizona State / UNLV 11.3 3.6 102 25
17 Byron Wesley Sr. SF Gonzaga / USC 11.0 17.8 113 22
18 Trey Zeigler Sr. SG TCU / Pittsburgh 11.0 4.4 107 23
19 Anthony Hickey Sr. PG Oklahoma State / LSU 10.8 8.4 101 21
20 Joe Coleman Jr. SG Saint Mary's / Minnesota 10.5 8.7 112 21

Antoine Mason (11) was the nation's second-leading scorer -- behind only Doug McDermott -- last season at Niagara, putting up 25.6 points per game. While the model considers Mason a valuable asset for Auburn, it forecasts a steep dropoff in scoring due to him sharing shots with fellow guards K.T. Harrell and Tahj Shamsid-Deen, and facing tougher defenses in the SEC. Byron Wesley (17) was a 17.8 points-per-game scorer at USC, but figures to be more of a role player in a balanced Gonzaga offense that could have four double-digit scorers.

Projected Top Transfers: 21-30
 
rank name class pos. new team / prev. team ppg prev. PPG ORTG Poss. (%)
21 Jesse Morgan Sr. SG Temple / Massachusetts 10.2 13.4 109 21
22 Cody Doolin Sr. PG UNLV / San Francisco 10.1 13.0 108 19
23 Jabarie Hinds Jr. PG Massachusetts / West Virginia 10.1 7.4 97 24
24 Rodney Purvis So. SG Connecticut / North Carolina State 9.9 8.3 106 22
25 Ahmad Starks Sr. PG Illinois / Oregon State 9.8 10.4 110 19
26 Aaron Bright Sr. PG Saint Mary's / Stanford 9.8 5.9 107 19
27 Aaron Brown Jr. SF Saint Joseph's / West Virginia 9.7 1.2 103 21
28 Jaylen Bond Jr. PF Temple / Texas 9.6 2.8 111 19%
29 Aaron Cosby Jr. SG Illinois / Seton Hall 9.6 12.6 109 22
30 Keith Hornsby Jr. SG LSU / UNC Asheville 9.2 15.0 109 20

Illinois is adding two quality transfers in Ahmad Starks (25) and Aaron Cosby (29); for a team that had one of the lowest ratios of assisted field goals last season (just 44.0 percent), Starks' point-guard skills should help. Rodney Purvis (24), a former McDonald's All-American who left N.C. State for UConn, should step in and be an effective complementary scorer to Ryan Boatright.

Projected Top Transfers: 31-40
 
rank name class pos. New Team / prev. team ppg prev. ppg ORTG poss. (%)
31 Achraf Yacoubou Jr. SG Saint Louis / Villanova 9.1 2.9 95 22
32 Stanton Kidd Sr. PF Colorado State / N.C. Central 9.0 14.5 117 18%
33 Bryn Forbes Jr. SG Michigan State / Cleveland State 8.9 15.6 105 21
34 Terence Smith Sr. SG Ole Miss / Tennessee Martin 8.9 14.6 109 20
35 Jonathan Holton Jr. SF West Virginia / Rhode Island 8.9 10.2 100 21%
36 Dantiel Daniels Jr. PF Colorado State / Southern Illinois 8.8 7.7 117 18%
37 Sheldon Jeter So. SF Pittsburgh / Vanderbilt 8.7 5.5 104 22
38 Cleon Roberts So. SG La Salle / Georgia Southern 8.7 8.7 104 20
39 Ricky Tarrant Jr. PG Alabama / Tulan 8.7 15.7 104 22
40 T.J. Cline So. PF Richmond / Niagara 8.7 7.9 113 19

Colorado State could have four D-I transfers in its '14-15 rotation, and our model places them all in the top 100: Stanton Kidd (32), Dantiel Daniels (36), Antwan Scott (71) and John Gillon (80). Kidd is a little-known forward from N.C. Central who appears to be a real asset; he was the most efficient scorer (and best rebounder) on a team that went 15-1 in the MEAC two seasons ago. Terence Smith (34) could be a sleeper at Ole Miss; he made 44.7 percent of his threes at Tennessee-Martin last season and rarely turned the ball over.

Projected Top Transfers: 41-50
 
rank name class pos. new team / prev. team ppg prev. ppg ortg poss. (%)
41 Julian Royal Jr. PF George Mason / Georgia Tech 8.6 1.7 104 22
42 Luke Fischer So. C Marquette / Indiana 8.6 2.8 106 19
43 Remy Abell Jr. SG Xavier / Indiana 8.5 4.0 116 19
44 Bishop Daniels Jr. SG Rutgers / Miami (Fla. ) 8.5 5.0 98 19
45 Brandon Perry Jr. PF San Diego / Cal St. Northridge 8.4 6.3 108 21
46 Keith Shamburger Sr. PG Missouri / Hawaii 8.4 9.3 101 22
47 K.C. Ross-Miller Sr. PG Auburn / New Mexico State 8.4 8.3 112 18
48 Jordan Baker Jr. SG San Jose State / Pepperdine 8.3 11.4 101 22
49 Justin Edwards Jr. SF Kansas Sate / Maine 8.3 16.8 107 21
50 Richaud Pack Sr. PG Maryland / North Carolina A&T 8.3 17.0 109 20

Justin Edwards (49) and Richaud Pack (50) have moved up to the big-time after former lives as volume scorers on bad, small-conference teams. They could out-perform the model's expectations if they earn enough playing time at Kansas State and Maryland, respectively. Luke Fischer (42) figures to become Marquette's starting center as soon as he's eligible to play in mid-December. The Indiana transfer is 6-11 and the Golden Eagles have no other players taller than 6-7.

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Projected Top Transfers: 51-60
 
rank name class pos. new team / prev. team ppg prev. ppg ortg poss. (%)
51 Justin Martin Sr. SF SMU / Xavier 8.2 11.7 108 19
52 Robert Upshaw So. C Washington / Fresno State 8.2 4.1 98 22
53 Jon Octeus Sr. PG Purdue / Colorado State 8.2 13.4 107 19
54 Darion Clark So. PF USC / Charlotte 8.1 6.2 99 23
55 Quevyn Winters Jr. SF Washington / Duquesne 8.0 9.6 102 21
56 Darius Leonard Sr. PF Wake Forest / Campbell 8.0 10.2 106 19
57 Myke Henry Jr. SF DePaul / Illinois 7.8 3.2 106 22
58 Anthony Lee Sr. PF Ohio State / Temple 7.6 13.6 110 21
59 Stephen Hurt Jr. C Kansas State / Lipscomb 7.6 11.5 107 20
60 Abdel Nader Jr. PF Iowa State / Northern Illinois 7.6 13.1 97 26

Robert Upshaw (52) should be a moderate-level scorer at Washington, but the 7-footer's main value will be as a shot-blocker and rim protector for a team that had one of the Pac-12's worst defenses last season. Nader (60) is one of three transfers -- along with Bryce Dejean-Jones (8) and Jameel McKay -- who'll help Iowa State contend for the Big 12 title.

Projected Top Transfers: 61-70
 
rank name class pos. new team / prev team ppg prev. ppg ortg poss. (%)
61 Christophe Varidel Sr. SG Alabama / Florida Gulf Coast 7.5 6.1 106 20
62 Jamal Aytes So. PF BYU / UNLV 7.5 2.8 103 21
63 Jeremiah Kreisberg Sr. PF Northwestern / Yale 7.5 5.6 102 21
64 Devonta Pollard Jr. PF Houston / Alabama 7.2 3.9 101 21
65 Dominic Woodson So. PF Tennessee / Memphis 7.1 2.5 97 24
66 Mike Shaw Jr. PF Bradley / Illinois 7.1 0.9 99 22
67 Paul Jesperson Jr. SG Northern Iowa / Virginia 7.1 4.7 102 17
68 Michael Kessens So. PF Alabama / Longwood 7.1 13.7 99 21
69 Charles Mitchell Jr. PF Georgia Tech / Maryland 7.0 6.5 97 22
70 Alex Murphy Jr. SF Florida / Duke 7.0 1.0 103 19

Dominic Woodson (65) was a highly ranked prospect who didn't pan out at Memphis, but if he gets in shape at Tennessee, he could be an asset for a team that desperately needs frontcourt help. Former Duke forward Alex Murphy (70) is eligible in December at Florida, and he could outperform the model's projections if he beats out talented freshman Devin Robinson for minutes on the wing.

Projected Top Transfers: 71-80
 
Rank name class pos. new team / prev. team ppg prev. ppg ortg Poss. (%)
71 Antwan Scott Sr. PG Colorado State / Grambling State 7.0 15.7 110 18
72 Robert Sampson Sr. PF Georgia Tech / East Carolina 6.9 9.1 102 20
73 Dimitri Batten Sr. SG Boston College / Old Dominion 6.8 11.0 95 24
74 Demarco Cox Sr. C Georgia Tech / Ole Miss 6.8 4.2 102 19
75 Desmond Simmons Sr. PF Saint Mary's / Washington 6.8 5.2 110 18
76 Ryan Bass Sr. PG Dayton / Oakland 6.6 9.3 106 21
77 Ibby Djimde Jr. PF Southern Illinois / Illinois 6.6 0.2 96 19%
78 Deuce Bello Jr. SF Missouri / Baylor 6.5 2.4 96 22
79 Ian Chiles Sr. PG Tennessee / IUPUI 6.5 15.8 98 23
80 John Gillon So. PG Colorado State / Ark.-Little Rock 6.4 10.6 115 18

Dimitri Batten (73) is projected to give Olivier Hanlan some scoring assistance at Boston College, but will Batten actually help the Eagles' offense? He was an aggressive but inefficient scorer at Old Dominion last season, making just 28.7 percent of his threes and turning the ball over at a fairly high rate for a shooter. Georgia Tech lost its entire front line from last season, and transfers Robert Sampson (72) and Demarco Cox (74) are its ho-hum replacements.

Projected Top Transfers: 81-90
 
rank name class pos. new team / prev. team ppg prev. ppg ortg poss. (%)
81 Chase Fischer Jr. SG BYU / Wake Forest 6.4 4.5 107 22
82 Calvin Godfrey Sr. PF Memphis / Southern 6.4 13.1 104 19
83 Eric Weary Jr. SG Houston / New Mexico State 6.3 1.1 101 19
84 Keaton Miles Jr. PF Arkansas / West Virginia 6.0 2.7 112 17
85 Frank Rogers Jr. PF San Jose State / San Francisco 6.0 1.8 99 18
86 Junior Lomomba So. SG Providence / Cleveland State 5.9 5.9 100 23
87 Aaron Brown Sr. SF Boston College / Southern Miss 5.8 9.9 105 19
88 Derrell Robertson Jr. Jr. PF San Francisco / DePaul 5.6 1.9 106 17
89 Farad Cobb Jr. PG Cincinnati / Chattanooga 5.5 5.7 99 21
90 Jon Horford Sr. PF Florida / Michigan 5.2 3.8 115 18

Jon Horford (90) might have played a bigger senior-year role had he stayed at Michigan, which lost Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary from its front line. As a graduate transfer at Florida, Horford figures to get backup minutes behind Chris Walker and Dorian Finney-Smith and add value to the Gators as a rebounder rather than a scorer.

Projected Top Transfers: 91-100
 
rank name class pos. new team / prev. team ppg prev. ppg ortg poss. (%)
91 Nick Zeisloft Jr. SG Indiana / Illinois State 5.2 6.9 110 15
92 Cavon Baker Jr. PG Houston / Florida 5.0 2.6 101 19
93 Angelo Choi Jr. PF San Diego State / Arizona 4.9 1.9 107 20
94 M.J. Rhett Sr. PF Ole Miss / Tennessee St. 4.7 10.9 104 19
95 Moses Ayegba Sr. PF Nebraska / Georgetown 4.6 1.9 99 17
96 Dwight Tarwater Sr. SF California / Cornell 4.6 7.1 104 18
97 Ricky Kreklow Sr. SF Creighton / California 4.5 5.5 104 18
98 Montray Clemons Jr. PF San Francisco / DePaul 4.1 1.3 99 21
99 Devin Coleman Jr. SG Temple / Clemson 3.8 5.4 101 21
100 Joe Thomas Sr. PF Miami / Niagara 3.8 3.4 99 16

Most of the players in this bracket figure to be bit players at best, and some may not crack rotations at all. Cal transfer Ricky Kreklow (97) is one who might outperform projections if Creighton opts to use him as an undersized (6-6) four in a spread-out offense -- the role that Ethan Wragge often played for the Bluejays last season.

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