MLB Pitching Wins Leader: Favorites, Long Shots and Players You Must Avoid

Who are the favorites to lead all MLB pitchers in wins this season? Are there any long-shot players worth investing in?

Author:
Roy Larking
Publish date:
Feb 25, 2020

As part of an extensive preseason prop betting package, bookmakers at the Westgate SuperBook are offering odds on which pitcher will post the most victories during the 2020 MLB season. Similar in value to quarterbacks in football and goaltenders in hockey, pitchers are a key component to team success in Major League Baseball. Workhorse starters who regularly rack up a high number of victories often single-handedly dominate the opposition.

Path to predicting most pitching wins

A few factors need to be considered when betting on the most pitching wins prop. That begins with determining which starters will log the most innings. Given that teams are stacked with deep bullpens, inning-eating pitchers are a rare breed these days. Statistics back that up, as there were just 42 complete games in 2018 and 43 last season. While the numbers have steadily dropped, there was an average of 119 complete games per season over the previous eight years.

From there, it is wise to examine the preseason win total projections for each team. Top starting pitchers from teams with the highest projected win totals will have ample opportunities to rack up wins. Houston was a solid example last season, as the Astros were projected to win 96.5 games. The Astros finished 107-55 and Justin Verlander led the league with 21 wins while teammate Gerrit Cole (now with the Yankees) finished second with 20 victories.

Don’t automatically write off pitchers who struggled during the previous season. Blake Snell, Rick Porcello and Jake Arrieta are recent winners who more than doubled their year-over-year win total to finish first. With the exception of 2017, when four players tied, there has been an outright winner during eight of the last nine seasons. This prop bet has not had a back-to-back winner since CC Sabathia finished tied with four players in 2009 and Roy Halladay in 2010.

If two or more pitchers tie for the most wins, the odds of all players involved are combined and divided by the number of winners. Wagering on a few different options gives bettors an opportunity to cash more than once on this prop. With their previous season win totals in brackets, here are the recent winners:

Reading like an All-Star Game pitching roster, workhorse starters are the top favorites to record the most wins during the 2020 MLB season. The list includes recent winners Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. This MLB prop option also includes rising stars like Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty and Mike Soroka in the top 30. Here is a look at three of the top contenders, a couple of players to avoid, and three underdogs who may challenge the favorites.

TOP CONTENDERS

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees: 6/1

Moving from the scandal plagued Astros to the biggest market in baseball, Cole sits well clear of the pack as top chalk. Cole finished a five-year run in Pittsburgh with a 12-win season in 2017 and then posted 15 and 20 wins during two years in Houston. Cole steps in as the ace of the Yankees’ pitching rotation and will receive ample run support from the offense. It will be interesting to see how Cole performs under the intense scrutiny and bright lights in the Bronx.

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers: 14/1

Clayton Kershaw is expected to have another solid year as the ace in Los Angeles, but Buehler is a rising star for the Dodgers. During 23 starts as a rookie, Buehler posted an 8–5 record in 2018 and then went 14–4 over 30 starts last season. After free agent Hyun-Jin Ryu signed with Toronto, Buehler assumes the role of undisputed second starter on the Dodgers’ depth chart. Bookmakers have Los Angeles listed with a 98.5 win total, so he is positioned to win a lot of games.

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros: 14/1

Until he proves otherwise, the three-time former winner deserves consideration on this prop bet. The departure of Cole leaves Verlander as the top starter in the Astros’ pitching rotation. At 37 years old, Verlander isn’t slowing down. He had 290 strikeouts in 2018 and topped that mark with a career high 300 Ks last year. A lack of recent back-to-back winners is a slight concern, but the Astros’ season win total is hovering at a lofty 94.5 victories.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Corey Kluber, Texas Rangers: 20/1

After nine seasons in Cleveland, Kluber is the new ace of the Rangers’ pitching rotation. Kluber was in a four-way tie with 18 wins in 2017 and finished second behind Blake Snell (21) with 20 victories in 2018. Kluber made just seven starts last year due to a broken forearm, and an abdomen injury shut him down during a late-season rehab assignment. While he is expected to return healthy this year, betting on damaged goods is not a wise idea.

Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians: 30/1

Clevinger is another pitcher with injury concerns. Despite missing a little over 10 weeks due to an early-season back injury, Clevinger matched his career high with 13 wins last year. A new injury has popped up though as the Indians ace just had minor knee surgery and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season. While his recovery time is projected to be short, Clevinger could be three or more wins behind the leaders before he makes his first start.

UNDERDOGS AND LONG SHOTS

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets: 30/1

Forecasted as contenders in what looks like a loaded NL East division, the Mets will need a strong season from deGrom to live up to expectations. After posting 15 wins in 2017, deGrom has reached only 10 and 11 victories during the past two seasons. The Mets ace allowed two or fewer earned runs 25 times in 2019, and New York lost 11 of those contests. Fourth overall in the majors, deGrom led the National League with 255 strikeouts last season.

Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves: 60/1

Qualifying this as a “big longshot with a shot,” the Canadian-born Soroka isn’t a highly recognized name yet. Bettors backing Soroka need the Braves’ sophomore star to gain a few extra starts and reduce the 12 no-decisions he recorded during his rookie season. Soroka sits at the top of the Braves’ pitching rotation after he went 13-4 and averaged six innings per outing over 29 starts last year. The Westgate SuperBook has Atlanta listed with a 90.5 win total.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox: 80/1

It is surprising to find Rodriquez as such a sizable long shot to post the most wins during the 2020 MLB season. As Boston’s second starter, behind Chris Sale who struggled last season, Rodriguez posted a 19–6 record over 34 starts. The appearances were the most in the league. With Boston losing some key components, including Mookie Betts, David Price and manager Alex Cora, the Red Sox are projected to win 87.5 games. Rodriguez will win many of them.

Displaying 2020 odds, plus 2019 records, here are the top 30 favorites: