College Basketball Best Bets: You Should be Gambling on Grambling
College basketball experts Three Man Weave are back with their three best bets for Thursday's slate. We're using the current odds from Westgate SuperBook (as of 12 p.m. ET) for these plays.
Grambling vs Alabama A&M
3MW's Pick: Grambling -2
Welcome to SI Grambling, everyone’s favorite section of the internet! Yes, that’s SI Grambling, Sports Illustrated’s official supporters’ section for the Grambling State Tigers. Our favorite SWAC school is on the road in Normal, AL, to take on the reeling Alabama A&M Bulldogs, who have been mostly non-competitive for three consecutive games.
That’s the first reason to like the Tigers. Alabama A&M is in the midst of a grueling (for the SWAC) stretch in its schedule, playing the top four teams in the league in succession. The Bulldogs got suffocated at home by No. 3 Southern (lost 64-37), were destroyed at No. 2 Texas Southern (lost 85-58), and trailed by double-digits for nearly the entire second half at No. 1 Prairie View A&M (lost 73-62). Finishing that up with a well-coached team in Grambling (No. 4 in the league) completes the gauntlet.
Matchup-wise, this one sets up well for the way Grambling wants to score. The Tigers play incredibly downhill, largely ignoring the three-point line (No. 348 in the country in three-point attempt rate), preferring instead to attack the rim via drives. Jitterbug point guard Ivy Smith keys the offense, and the senior has elevated his play of late, particularly in how he’s set up his teammates.
Smith is averaging 13.8 PPG and 8.2 APG over his last five games, up from his full season averages of 12.2 PPG and 5.2 APG, and that ability to drive and draw extra defenders bodes well against an Alabama A&M defense that struggles mightily to protect the paint. In conference play, the Bulldogs rank No. 9 (second-last) in 2P% defense, and they’re 332 in the country in average height. That lack of size can be exposed by Grambling, who ranks No. 3 in the SWAC in 2P% offense and No. 67 nationally in average height.
On the other end, Alabama A&M will likely struggle to score against Grambling’s size, as the Bulldogs are one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country (28.1% from three-point range for the season, No. 345 nationally). Unsurprisingly, the Bulldogs managed just 0.80 PPP in the first meeting.
One other key factor to note for this one is SWAC Tournament motivations. Alabama A&M is currently No. 8 in the league, and only the top eight teams make the tournament; the Bulldogs do need a win to hold off Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Grambling State should be quite motivated too, though, as the Tigers are currently No. 4 in the standings, battling to retain home court advantage in the quarterfinals. Plus, they are in range of stealing the 3-seed from Southern, who has a very difficult final two games against the league’s top two teams. Put simply, this game definitely still matters to both teams. That’s not an edge, but it’s key that Grambling should not have a letdown in effort.
Venturing into the SWAC waters is not for the faint of heart, as games can be swung by heroic team managers or devolve into a brawl at a moment’s notice, but if you’re going to do it, you’re on the right page–SI Grambling, of course.
Oakland vs. Green Bay
3MW's Pick: Oakland +4.5
Betting the hot hand in college basketball. Smart investment or fool's gold? This conundrum has confounded handicappers for years.
The unsatisfying reality is that there’s no clear-cut answer. The trend momentum of a hot team is often too swift for the oddsmakers to catch up at first, but at some point, the gravy train has to end. The key is identifying when and where that trend line will level off…
In the case of Greg Kampe and the boiling hot Oakland Grizzlies, there’s no such plateau in sight. Our handicapping meteorology advice is as follows: keep ridin’ the heat wave folks.
The rise of Oakland started from the bowels of the Horizon League standings, where the Grizzlies resided for the first six weeks of conference play. Oakland bottomed out on January 25 after a cataclysmic collapse against IUPUI, which dropped the Grizz to 2-7 in the league standings and 7-15 overall.
Enter Rashad Williams. The former Cleveland State transfer made his season debut in mid-January but needed a few weeks to wash away the rust. Fittingly, the lightbulb switched on the game after the IUPUI debacle against Detroit, as Williams lit up the Titans for 37 points. From there, it was off to the races. Williams has been in a zone over the last month, averaging 20 points a game while stabilizing a once turbulent-ridden backcourt.
Williams’ gravitational pull on the perimeter has also opened up acres of space inside for Xavier Hill-Mais, the Grizz’ interior meal ticket. ‘XRM’ has established himself as one of the premier post players in the league, which now attracts swarms of double teams on a nightly basis. Kampe, disturbed by Hill-Mais’ reluctance to attack early in the year, pulled XRM aside about halfway through conference season and re-tuned his compass: "think less, attack more," he told XRM. This simple, yet brilliant wisdom has reincarnated Hill-Mais into the unstoppable force that was dormant during November, December and January.
Those that caught Tuesday night’s destruction of Cleveland State witnessed Hill-Mais at his finest. The senior from Greensboro had a buffet in the paint, scoring 26 points and grabbing 12 rebounds to push the Grizz into tonight’s Quarterfinal showdown with Green Bay.
The rise of the Grizzlies’ ‘Thunder’ (Hill-Mais) and ‘Lightning’ tandem has fueled a momentous run over the last few weeks, which has produced six covers against the spread over the last seven games. If you're worried about Oakland cooling off tonight, fear not - there’s no cold front in this forecast.
Hampton vs. Longwood
3MW's Pick: Hampton +3
The quarterfinals of the Big South conference tournament tip-off today, and we have a rubber match in the 4/5 game between Hampton and Longwood. The pair split the regular season series, each winning at home, and now look to break the tie for the honor of meeting top-seeded Radford in the semifinals. Hampton has covered three of its past four contests, while Longwood is 6-2 ATS over its last eight and is currently riding a four-game winning streak.
Upon seeing this line, my first gut reaction was, “no way, that’s too high.” To back up this feeling, I took a look back at the closing lines from the previous two matchups between these squads. Hampton was a three-point favorite at its place on January 11, and Longwood was a four-point favorite on its home floor on February 15. Even if you think Hampton has gotten worse since that time and Longwood improved, a +3 spread on a neutral floor makes little sense.
From a macro-perspective, there’s a few things to like about Hampton. A well-known narrative in March is that high-scoring senior guards who have the ability to take over games tend to win in tournament settings. Hampton has one of the best high-scoring guards in the country in Jermaine Marrow, a senior who averages 24.3 PPG, the fourth-best mark in the nation. Marrow is the equivalent of an NBA Street gamebreaker–he’s capable of single-handedly dumping a barrage of points on his opponents and carrying his squad to victory. To boot, Marrow’s counterpart in the frontcourt, 6’6” sophomore Ben Stanley, ranks eighth nationally in scoring at 22.5 PPG. In the postseason talent usually wins out, and Hampton has two of the most talented players in the league.
Looking at the matchup, one key factor for Hampton will be Longwood’s inability to take advantage of its putrid defense. The Pirates rank dead last in the Big South in adjusted defensive efficiency, a primary reason for their struggles this season, but the Lancers rank dead last in adjusted offensive efficiency. Longwood cannot exploit Hampton to the extent others in the Big South can, and that is a huge factor when Hampton has two players on its roster who can score essentially at will on the other end. Longwood’s defense has been solid this year, second best in the Big South, but it has struggled stopping opponents in transition, an area where the Pirates thrive.
The Lancers also rely on forcing turnovers on their defensive end, something that just will not happen with Marrow handling the ball. Hampton leads the conference in turnover rate and ranks 27th in the country overall. Marrow and Stanley should be able to find buckets on the run and via the pick-n-roll, a nearly unstoppable combination when the pair join forces. Look for this game to be high-scoring with the Pirates coming out on top and moving on to the Big South semis.
3MW Record: 35-25-3
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