MLB Bets for Wednesday, April 28: Fade the Favorite in deGrom and the Mets

SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking previews Wednesday's MLB betting action and shares the two top picks on his baseball betting card.

Author:
Roy Larking
Publish date:
Apr 28, 2021

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Boston Red Sox at New York Mets

Division leaders meet when Boston and New York close out a two-game interleague series tonight. The first pitch for the Red Sox vs. Mets matchup is at 6:40 p.m. ET at Citi Field in New York. This is the second of four meetings this season. Despite managing just five hits, Boston posted a 2–1 win against New York last night. After falling behind, 1–0 in the second inning, the Red Sox recorded their league-leading 12th comeback victory. These teams split their season series last year. The Mets won twice in Boston, 7–4 and 8–3, prior to the Red Sox winning 6–5 and 4–2 in New York.

Boston (15–9) is first overall in the American League East and has a three-game lead on Tampa Bay and Toronto. The Red Sox opened their season at home and were outscored 18–5 by the Baltimore Orioles during a three-game sweep. Boston rebounded with 3–0 series wins against Tampa Bay at home and Baltimore on the road. After three wins in Minnesota, the Red Sox nine-game winning streak ended with a 4–3 loss to the Twins. Cooling off slightly, the Red Sox were 5–5 during a ten-game homestand prior to this series. Boston is 7–1 on the road and have a 46–26 scoring edge as visitors.

New York (9–9) is a half-game ahead of Philadelphia and Atlanta in the National League East standings. The NL East is the only division that doesn’t have a team with a winning record. The Mets had their season-opening series against Washington postponed due to COVID-19 issues. They have also had three games canceled due to weather. After a 7–4 start, New York has lost five of their last seven games. Following three losses to Cubs, by a 23–8 margin in Chicago, the Mets returned home and won two of three against Washington. The two victories were 6–0 and 4–0 shutouts.

RHP Jacob deGrom (2–1, 0.31 ERA) is making his fifth start for New York. He has allowed just one earned run, on 13 hits and three walks, over 29 innings this season. DeGrom set a major league record with 50 strikeouts during his first four starts. RHP Nick Pivetta (2–0, 3.48 ERA) heads to the hill for Boston. He has allowed eight runs, on 14 hits over 20.2 innings, and has an 18–14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Red Sox are 3–1 during his first four starts. Boston is averaging 5.04 runs per game while the Mets score just 3.16 runs. Bet the run line and back Boston as road underdogs.

Pick: Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-102) run line

Betting Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook – Game Time 6:40 p.m. ET

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

National League West rivals close out a two-game series when San Diego visits Arizona tonight. Game time for the Padres vs. Diamondbacks contest is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ariz. This is the sixth of 19 meetings this season. Arizona scored three runs in the sixth inning, and held San Diego to just four hits, during a 5–1 win last night. These teams opened the season with a four-game series in San Diego. After the Padres won the first three games, by a 19–9 combined margin, the Diamondbacks avoided a sweep with a 3-1 victory in the series finale.

San Diego (13–12) sits fourth overall in the NL West standings. The Padres are three games behind Los Angeles and San Francisco who lead the division with 15–8 records. After opening the season with an 8–3 start, San Diego lost seven of their next nine games. Offense was an issue for the Padres as they were outscored 39–14 during the seven losses. Prior to visiting Arizona, San Diego got back on track with a 3–1 series win against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Padres are 8–4 on the road and six of the wins were by two or more runs. San Diego hasn't won in Arizona since April 13, 2019.

Make it 11 straight Diamondback wins after the victory last night.

Arizona (12–11) is percentage points ahead of San Diego and sit third overall in the NL West. The Diamondbacks were slow out of the starting gate as they opened the season with a 5–10 record. Eight of the losses were by at least two runs. Following a 6–2 loss to the Nationals, on the road in Washington on April 17, Arizona has been on a roll as they have won seven of their last eight games. Prior to this series, the Diamondbacks closed a nine-game road trip with two wins (5–0 and 7–0) during a doubleheader against the Braves in Atlanta. Arizona is 3–3 at home as they have played a road-heavy schedule.

LHP Ryan Weathers (1–0, 0.59 ERA) is making his third start for San Diego. Following three relief appearances, his first two starts were against Los Angeles. Weathers, who is the youngest staring pitcher in the league, held the high-scoring Dodgers to just two hits over 9.1 scoreless innings. RHP Taylor Widener (1–0, 2.82 ERA) is making his fifth start for Arizona. He allowed three hits, over six scoreless innings, during the Diamondbacks 3–1 win in San Diego on April 4. Arizona is scoring 5.26 runs per game while San Diego averages 3.76 runs. Take the runs and bet on the Diamondbacks.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-114) run line