Both the Bills and Saints are coming off losses and looking for a win in Thursday night’s Thanksgiving game.
- Moneyline: Buffalo (-275) | New Orleans (+225)
- Spread: Buffalo -6.5 (-110) | New Orleans +6.5 (-110)
- Total: 45.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Game Info: Nov. 25, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | Fox
Buffalo is favored by 6.5, and it should be. Buffalo has Josh Allen and one of the league’s top defenses. The Saints have second-string QB Trevor Siemien under center, and a defense that has surrendered the fourth-most passing yards (1,098) and the second-most passing touchdowns (8) to enemy QBs across their last four contests.
Buffalo is averaging 29.5 points per game, the second-most points per game. The Saints are middle of the pack, tallying 25.1 points per game. However, the Saints have averaged 25 points across the last three contests, while the Bills averaged 22 points.
Defensively, the Bills are allowing the second-fewest points per game (17.6) but that number has increased to 22.3 over the last three games. The Saints have allowed 21.8 points per game—the 10th-best mark—on the season, but have allowed 30 points per game across the past three contests. Both defenses are looking a little tired.
Buffalo is 5-4-1 Against The Spread (ATS) this season, and their games have exceeded the projections 50% of the time. The Bills 2-2 this year as the away favorite.
New Orleans is 5-5 ATS, and their games have exceeded the projections 60% of the time. The Saints won their only home game this year as an underdog.
Buffalo’s run defense has been stout all season, allowing only 86 yards per game to opposing running backs, although it allowed 264 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor and the Colts in last week's loss. If you remove that game, the Bills are allowing only 58.8 yards per game. The Saints will likely still be without Alvin Kamara and possibly Mark Ingram. I don’t see New Orleans gaining much in the ground game Thursday.
The Saints have also been strong against the run, allowing only 66 yards per game to opposing running backs. We have never counted on the Buffalo run game, so this number doesn’t move the needle for me.
Buffalo’s secondary has been decent across the last four contests, allowing 190 passing yards per game to opposing QBs and 105 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. The Saints, in comparison, have allowed 270 passing yards to opposing QBs and 167 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers.
The Bills average 39 passing attempts per game, Josh Allen has no shortage of weapons and they should be able to put plenty of points on the board.
The Superdome will be rocking and the Saints are looking to snap a three-game losing streak, but Allen and the Bills win. Look for New Orleans to put up a fight and cover the spread if Ingram or Kamara are available. Both defenses are trending in the wrong direction, and I expect the game total to go over 46.
Player Props to Target
Josh Allen anytime TD +163
The Saints have allowed five rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks across the last four games, including three to Jalen Hurts last Sunday. The Bills don’t have much of a run game, and Allen, who has three rushing scores, will find his way into the end zone.
Emmanuel Sanders over 41.5 receiving yards -125
The Saints have allowed an average of 270 passing yards and 8.91 yards per attempt to opposing QBs across the past four contests. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders is commanding 30% of the team’s air yards and 16% of the team’s targets. His average depth of target is 16.64, and I think we will see Allen show off his big arm on Thursday. Sanders has exceeded this prop in seven of ten games this season.
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