Tigers-Guardians, Mariners-Rangers, Diamondbacks-Padres Plus-Money MLB Bets
As we head into the All-Star break, let’s finish the first half of the season with a bang!
Last week two of our three underdog bets cashed, and one plus-money game total also hit. So, it's fair to say we're feeling frisky again tonight.
If you're just starting to follow along, I try only to pick plus-money bets or bets that have very little juice in my MLB bets series. The bankroll strategy is for our wins to pay more than we invested. Sometimes that means the "risk" is higher, but our bankroll is growing nicely so far.
We're off to a 31-23 start to the season (57%) on SI Sportsbook, and 28 of those wins paid plus-money.
You can also track along with all my bets across all sports on SharpRank.
We’re going to try it again- all underdog bets tonight. Hold on to your seats, and let’s have some fun!
Detroit Tigers (37-53) vs. Cleveland Guardians (44-44)
- Moneyline: Tigers (+155) | Guardians (-188)
- Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-133)| Guardians -1.5 (+110)
- Total: 8.5 Over (+100) | Under (-188)
Sure, the Guardians continue to surprise, and they are the better ball club. But baseball is a game of "what have you done for me lately?" And the Tigers have done right by us at SISB. They upset the White Sox last week, and we are going back to the well tonight.
Across their last ten games, both teams are 4-6, with the Detroit Tigers (3.81) outscoring Cleveland (3.40) in runs per game for July.
Detroit sends Drew Hutchinson (1-4, 4.08) to the bump tonight. Hutchinson has one win and an ERA of 2.45 in July, and yes, that one win came on July 5th when he faced the Guardians and pitched five innings allowing only one run and allowing no free passes.
The Guardians will start Zach Plesac (2-7, 3.99 ERA). Plesac has disappointed this season, but he has been better of late. However, Statcast says his expected ERA this year is 5.55. It sounds like the Tigers could have a chance to get to the starter.
Detroit's bullpen has faltered a little of late (3.81 ERA for July), but on the season, Detroit relievers have been excellent, with the third lowest ERA in the league (3.06)- behind only Houston and the NYY. Cleveland's bullpen has been middle of the pack.
When I look at this game, the pitchers look like they are a fairly even match, and I expect his game to be close. I know Cleveland is at home, and they have a lot more to play for, but I love this payout for Detroit.
Players to watch
• Willi Castro has an OPS of 1.192 vs. Zach Plesac across 13 at bats.
• Rookie Nolan Jones is hitting .333 with a 1.052 OPS since joining the bigs on July 8th.
BET: Detroit ML (+155)
Seattle Mariners (48-42) vs. Texas Rangers (41-46)
- Moneyline: Mariners (-163) | Rangers (+138)
- Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+105) | Rangers +1.5 (-125)
- Total: 7.5 Over(-125 | Under (+105)
The Mariners have been the hottest team in baseball lately—except for maybe the Orioles—and they have won their last eleven matchups. Tonight they send reigning AL Cy Young Robbie Ray (7-6, 3.41) to the bump in Texas.
So, why am I going to bet against them?
This streak has to end eventually, right? It's awfully hard to win twelve in a row, and tonight I think Texas, who is only 4.5 games out of the Wild Card, has even more to play for.
After a rocky start to the season, Robbie Ray has been much better of late, with a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP for July. Ray strikes batters out at a rate of more than 10 per nine innings, but he also is prone to too many free passes (3.10/nine). That can lead to a lot of trouble if he has an off night.
The Rangers are slugging .458 vs. left-handed pitching this year, the second highest mark in the league. The Rangers have also scored the second-most runs per game in July (5.69), behind only the Yankees.
On the other side, Texas reliever Matt Bush (2-1, 3.64) will be making another spot start. Bush strikes batters out at a rate of 12 per nine but will likely not go more than five innings, meaning we should get to the Texas bullpen early. That advantage goes to the Mariners, as the Texas bullpen has struggled in July. The Mariners are averaging 4.50 runs per game in July.
These teams battled in a close one last night, with the Mariners pulling a narrow 6-5 victory. The Mariners' win streak has to end sometime, and I am betting that's tonight in Texas.
Players to Watch
• Julio Rodriguez continues to make his case for AL ROY. He's hitting .273 with 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases.
• This year, Corey Seager has eight home runs vs. left-handed pitching (T-2nd in MLB). He's hit 15 of his 21 home runs at home this year, he's hitting .347 with six homers in July, and he's headed to the Home Run Derby on Monday.
BET: Rangers ML (+138)
Arizona Diamondbacks (39-50) vs. San Diego Padres (50-41)
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+155) | Padres (-188)
- Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138 | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Total: 7.5 -Over (+100) | Under (-118)
SISB thinks this will be a fairly low-scoring game, and I tend to agree. Games at Petco have averaged 7.33 runs per game in 2022, and across the last two weeks, the Padres offense has been anemic, scoring only 3.08 runs per game- the fourth fewest in the league. The Friars have lost seven of their last ten.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks have scored an average of 5.08 runs per game in July. So, could there be an upset?
The Padres will start the dependable Yu Darvish (7-4, 3.38) at home. Darvish has been very good this year, though he has struggled a bit more in July, surrendering six earned runs across his last 13 innings pitched.
The D-backs will send Madison Bumgarner (5-8, 3.65) to the mound. It's not flashy, but somehow Bumgarner is getting it done. A good team could expose him and inflate that ERA, but I don't think that team is tonight's Padres club. This San Diego team looks like they need this All-Star break.
The Padres have the better pitcher and team, and they certainly have the chance to take advantage of a terrible Arizona bullpen, but they don't look right. With only a .709 OPS and .386 vs. left-handed pitching, there's no value in taking them on the ML or the run line, so I'm going to pivot to the road 'dogs.
Players to Watch
• In 21 career at bats, David Perlalta has an OPS of 1.377 and three home runs vs. Yu Darvish. Ten of his 11 homers have come vs. RHP this year.
• Manny Machado has taken Bumgarner deep three times across 34 career at bats. He has eight homers vs. left-handed pitching this year (T-2nd in MLB)
BET: Diamondbacks ML (+155)
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