NFL Betting Trends at the Midpoint of the Season

Here’s a comprehensive look at which teams have fared the best and worst against the spread in 2022.

Wagering on the NFL is often a difficult endeavor, so it is extremely prudent for bettors to pay attention to team trends that can often be used as a valuable tool in building bankrolls.

Simply backing the best teams isn’t always beneficial. Case in point: The Chiefs sit atop the AFC West with a 6-3 straight up record (66.7%), but they have only covered the spread in 37.5% of their games (3-5 ATS).

Another example would involve the Vikings, who boast the second-best record in the NFL at 7-1. However, despite winning at an 87.5% clip in the standings, Minnesota has burned bettors by covering against the number only 42.9% of the time over that span (3-4-1 ATS).

On the flip side, blindly “fading” the teams with the worst records in the actual standings isn’t always the way to go, either.

Look at the worst team in the NFL through 10 weeks in 2022: the Texans.

Dameon Pierce and the Texans have the worst record in the NFL, but one of the best spread records in the NFL.

They have won only one game this season (1-6-1 SU) and are in the lead for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. However, from a betting perspective they boast one of the best records against the spread (6-3), covering the number at a 66.7% clip despite owning an actual winning percentage of .188.

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Plainly backing home teams continues to be a toss-up for bettors in the NFL in 2022 as teams playing in front of their home fans (not counting the three international games) are only 74-59-1 SU (55.6%).

Grabbing the points offered by oddsmakers remains the lucrative way to invest, as underdogs have posted a 77-54-6 ATS (58.8%) mark, while also playing under the posted total has rewarded bettors with an 80-55-2 (59.3%) record.

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Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst teams in the NFL when placed in various betting situations.

BEST TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD
Dallas 6-2-0
N.Y. Giants 6-2-0
Tennessee 6-2-0
N.Y. Jets 6-3-0
Cincinnati 6-3-0
Seattle 6-3-0

WORST TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD
Tampa Bay 2-6-1
L.A. Rams 2-5-1
New Orleans 3-6-0
Indianapolis 3-6-0
Green Bay 3-6-0
Jacksonville 3-6-0
Carolina 3-6-0

BEST HOME TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD
Philadelphia 4-0-0
Dallas 4-1-0
Seattle 3-1-0
N.Y. Giants 3-1-0
Cincinnati 3-1-0

BEST ROAD TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD
L.A. Chargers 4-0-0
N.Y. Jets 4-0-0
Tennessee 4-1-0
Baltimore 4-1-0
Kansas City 3-1-0
New England 3-1-1

UNDERDOGS ‘WITH ‘BITE’ AGAINST THE SPREAD
N.Y. Giants 5-1-0
Seattle 5-2-0
Atlanta 6-3-0
N.Y. Jets 5-3-0

TEAM THAT COVER AS FAVORITES AGAINST THE SPREAD
Dallas 3-0-0
Washington 2-0-0
N.Y. Jets 1-0-0
Tennessee 3-1-0
New England 3-1-1
Philadelphia 5-3-0
Cincinnati 5-3-0

BEST HOME RECORD (SU)
Minnesota 4-0-0
Philadelphia 4-0-0
Buffalo 3-0-0 Dallas 4-1-0
Kansas City 3-1-0
Seattle 3-1-0
Miami 3-1-0
N.Y. Giants 3-1-0
Cincinnati 3-1-0

BEST ROAD RECORD (SU)
Philadelphia 4-0-0
N.Y. Jets 4-0-0
Baltimore 4-1-0
L.A. Chargers 3-1-0
Kansas City 3-1-0

BEST TEAMS TO THE OVER
Cleveland 5-2-1
Philadelphia 5-3-0
Detroit 5-3-0
Las Vegas 4-3-1
New Orleans 5-4-0
Seattle 5-4-0
Chicago 5-4-0

BEST TEAMS TO THE UNDER
Indianapolis 8-1-0
Denver 7-1-0
Buffalo 7-1-0
Tampa Bay 7-2-0
L.A. Rams 6-2-0
N.Y. Giants 6-2-0
Tennessee 6-2-0

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.