2023 NFL Draft: Using Odds to Predict Who the Commanders Will Take With Their First-Round Pick
The Commanders went 8–8–1 last season and just missed the playoffs, which set them up with the 16th pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
There are two clear and present needs for Washington: Cornerback and offensive line. Those positions are far ahead of all others in the betting markets and SI’s Albert Breer singled both out as team needs.
Breer also noted the team could use a quarterback but said he would be surprised if that’s how the Commanders decided to spend their first-round pick. Sam Howell, a 2022 fifth-round selection, has been dubbed the likely starter for the coming season after Carson Wentz was released and Taylor Heinicke left in free agency.
What Position Will the Commanders Select in the First Round?
Cornerback +100
Offensive Lineman +200
Quarterback +850
Tight End +900
Running Back +1000
Defensive Lineman +1400
Safety +2000
Linebacker +2000
Wide Receiver +3300
Matt Krohn/USA Today Sports
The top two cornerbacks in the draft — Christian Gonzalez out of Oregon and Devon Witherspoon from Illinois — will likely be long gone by the time Washington is on the clock. Gonzalez has often been mocked in the top 10 and Witherspoon is projected soon after.
That could leave Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. on the board for Washington. Porter, the son of four-time Pro Bowler Joey Porter, was named first-team all-Big Ten in 2022 and finished with a career-high 11 passes defended. The Commanders finished 13th in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The last time the front office invested a first-round pick in the secondary was 2007 (LaRon Landry). That streak could end Thursday.
Offensive line is another area of need and there’s quite a few talented tackles available in this class, including Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski out of Northwestern, Broderick Jones from Georgia and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright. Washington could be in range to land Jones or Wright, though Johnson and Skoronski will likely both be off the board already.
Protecting Howell, who made just one start as a rookie, should be of the utmost importance after Commanders quarterbacks collectively finished among the league leaders in sacks taken in 2022. Florida interior offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence could potentially be in play if the run on tackles occurs early.
The Commanders can’t be ruled out of the quarterback conversation entirely, but one would likely have to fall to them in the middle of the first round. Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, who has been mocked in this area of the draft, was the only signal-caller the team hosted on a pre-draft visit.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid out of Utah landed with Washington in SI’s latest mock draft. Adding Kincaid would give Howell another target to throw to, but perhaps Michael Mayer from Notre Dame makes more sense for a team that’s also looking to shore up its blocking. Both projected first-round tight ends have been mocked in the late teens and Logan Thomas, who has missed 14 games over the last few seasons, has not yet come close to replicating his career year in 2020.
From a value perspective, a tight end (+900) is intriguing and seems entirely plausible. But the oddsmakers seem set on the Commanders either adding in the secondary at even odds or along the offensive line at 2-to-1 odds.
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