5 AFC Player Props Worth Locking in Before the Season Starts
The NFL season is just around the corner, and if you're itching to place some player prop wagers on the season, now could be an excellent time to take advantage of a few preseason markets.
Bear in mind it's usually not wise to tie up a lot of bankroll for the season, so think carefully about how much you invest in the preseason to have plenty left for your weekly wagers. However, there's no reason not to start getting in on some of the action today.
I've chosen mostly over bets, so maybe we won't have to sweat it out for the full 17-game regular season. Then again, it's kind of fun when it comes down to the wire. Are you ready to sweat a little with me?
Here are five season-long player wagers I have my eye on in, all from the AFC:
Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports
Justin Herbert over 4450.5 passing yards (-115)
Justin Herbert got a new offensive coordinator and a new contract in the off-season, and Chargers fans will expect him to deliver. He has plenty of receiving weapons, with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett all returning. The Chargers also added talented rookie Quentin Johnston, and Herbert has plenty of options for the passing game. Kellen Moore -- who led the Dallas offense to top-four finishes in the past two seasons, is surely scheming to push the ball downfield with Herbert's big arm. Herbert exceeded this number in his past two seasons and nearly cleared this mark in just 15 games played in his rookie year. He has to clear 262 yards per game to beat this, and barring injury, that should be easy enough for a fully healthy AFC West QB. Don't forget, Herbert was playing injured for most of last season, too.
Trevor Lawrence over 4050.5 passing yards (-115)
I liked this prop even better when I locked it in a month ago at 3975.5 passing yards, but I still like the over today at 4050.5. Trevor Lawrence took significant strides in his sophomore year with the Jaguars, his first year under Doug Pederson. Lawrence passed for 4,113 yards with a 66.3% completion rate in 2022. His favorite weapons are returning (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram) and the Jaguars will see superstar wideout Calvin Ridley make his Jacksonville debut this season. The threat of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby in the run game will keep defenses guessing and keep the passing game open for Lawrence, who more than doubled his touchdowns (12 to 25), cut his interceptions in half (17 down to 8), and improved his completion percentage (59.6% to 69.3%) between 2021 and 2022. Expect another step forward in 2023.
Courtland Sutton over 700.5 receiving yards (-115)
Suppose you're buying in on Russell Wilson. In that case, you should take a serious look at this Courtland Sutton prop which looks absurdly low to me, after he finished last season with 829 receiving yards despite the fact he had very uneven quarterback play. I'm in on Jerry Jeudy as well, but Sutton commanded 21.4% of the team's target share in 2022 (28th) as opposed to Jeudy's 19.4% (38th), and he saw 37.6% of the team's air yard share (15th) as opposed to Jeudy's 31.8% (33rd). He also was the first read for Wilson 30.8% of the time (17th). However, only 72.5% (71st) of Sutton's targets were catchable. Wilson remains one of the top deep-ball passers in the league despite the lackluster 2022 season (he was eighth as a deep passer, according to NextGen Stats). A vastly improved offensive line puts Wilson in a much better spot, and if Sean Peyton can help unlock the veteran QB, it's a good gamble Sutton will bounce back, too, and this number is enticing.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Travis Kelce over 1100.5 (+115)
I know Travis Kelce has to slow down eventually, but is there any real reason to think it will be this year? Kelce has exceeded this prop in the past five consecutive seasons and six of the last seven. The Chiefs offense passed for an average of 298 yards per game last season. Of those, 1,338 went to Kelce. He's Patrick Mahomes's favorite target, and Kansas City did little to bring in more weapons for Mahomes -- probably because he doesn't need any. After all, he's got Travis Kelce.
Nick Chubb under 8.5 rushing touchdowns (+115)
Nick Chubb matched his career high with 12 rushing TDs last season. In his other three NFL seasons, Chubb logged exactly eight touchdowns each. However, for the final six games of 2022 -- after Deshaun Watson took over at quarterback -- Chubb did not rush for a single TD. With Watson as the new star of the offense and the possibility he will vulture a few touchdowns, too, the plus money here is too enticing -- even though Chubb could be the best pure runner in the league.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700. The Arena Media Brands, LLC and its partners may receive compensation for links to products and services on this website.
