Bijan Robinson Enters Season With Best Odds to Win 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year
The NFL season officially kicks off Sept. 7, so it’s time to make your wagers on who will be this season’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
When placing your futures bet, there are two things to consider: talent and opportunity. When choosing what to weigh more, I always lean toward opportunity. There are a lot of talented players on this list who need a better path to enough playing time to warrant a wager. At the same time, with enough opportunity, a young player who may not have the highest pedigree may exceed expectations.
Here are some trends to keep in mind.
A quarterback has won the award nine times in the past 20 seasons and three of the last seven (Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott).
A running back has taken the award six times in the last 20 and twice in the last seven (Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara)
A wide receiver has taken the award home just five times in the last 20 seasons; however, a wideout has brought it home in the last two seasons (Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase).
A tight end has never taken home the freshman honors.
Falcons rookie running back Bijan Robinson
John David Mercer/USA Today Sports
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (+300) is the favorite, and he is dripping with both talent and opportunity. He is expected to be the focal point of Arthur Smith’s run-first offense in Atlanta. Robinson put up 2,707 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns across his final two seasons at UT while also averaging close to six yards per attempt.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young comes in with the next-best odds at +450. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and first overall pick of the 2023 NFL draft, Young will start from Week 1 with Carolina.
Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud are tied for the third-best odds at +700. Both young QBs will also start from Week 1, with Richardson being the more mobile and probably more flashy of the two. These two players are in the same division, with neither team expected to be competitive as of today.
Jahmyr GIbbs at +900 is intriguing value as the Lions traded up to get the Alabama runner with the 12th pick of the draft, then traded away D’Andre Swift to Philadelphia.
The first wideout on the list, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, at +800, is expected to miss the first few games of the season due to a recent wrist surgery. In a receiving room with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, I am pivoting away from this play and prefer to place my bet on either Jordan Addison (+1400), who should be able to put up good numbers in Minnesota when Justin Jefferson is getting doubled, or Zay Flowers (+2000), who has the opportunity to emerge as Lamar Jackson’s WR1 in Baltimore.
Finally, if you want to bet on a tight end taking home the award for the first time in NFL history, you have plenty of good options this season. Dalton Kincaid (+4000), Sam LaPorta (+5000), Michael Mayer (+5000) and Luke Musgrave (+10000) all have the opportunity to emerge as top-two targets on their teams.
Here are the current odds at Si Sportsbook:
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons +300
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers +450
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts +700
C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans +700
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks +800
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions +900
Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings +1400
Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers +1800
Will Levis, QB, Titans +2000
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens +2000
De’von Achane, RB, Dolphins +3000
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks +3000
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Giants +3300
Roschon Johnson, RB, Bears +3500
Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans +3500
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills +4000
Hendon Hooker, QB, Lions +4000
Jonathan Mingo, WR, Panthers +4000
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs +4000
Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns +5000
Josh Downs, WR, Colts +5000
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders +5000
Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions +5000
Sean Tucker, RB, Buccaneers +6000
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jaguars +6000
Marvin Mims, WR, Broncos +8000
Luke Musgrave, TE, Packers +10000
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