NFL Week 1 Bad Beats and Huge Parlay Payouts
Sports bettors can easily recall all of their ‘bad beats’ than they can remember winning wagers. While placing investments on sporting events can increase excitement, interest and engagement - the angst of losing a bet that is just moments away from winning - can result in a psychological rollercoaster.
This new weekly column “Odds & Ends” will highlight and review the most impactful plays that resulted in sports bettors either beating the odds or ending up on the wrong side of a dreaded “bad beat”.
In addition, we will take a look back at which teams emerged victorious, resulting in the greatest impact to Survivor Pool entrants.
Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports
Betting Landscape
Home field played a pivotal role in the outcome of games last season as home teams went 160-122-2 straight-up (SU) (56.3%). However, in Week 1 of the 2023 season bettors witnessed just the opposite as road teams dominated play going 10-6 SU (62.5%) while remarkably posting a 12-4 against the spread (ATS) (75%) mark.
Grabbing the points was a lucrative way to invest in 2022 as underdogs finished with a lucrative 151-124-9 against the spread (ATS) (54.9%) mark. In Week 1 of 2023 season, bettors found that trend continuing in impressive fashion as underdogs went 11-5 ATS (68.8%).
Total bettors witnessed significantly lower scoring games as the opening slate witnessed an 12-4 (75%) mark to the under.
Bad Beats
Seattle quarterback Geno Smith’s “Oh My God” moment provided us with a fitting way to capture the reactions of bettors who suffered bad beats in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.
Several of the worst bad beats in Week 1 occurred after wild last-second plays that burned investors.
Bizarre Scoop-N-Score Contributes to Misery for Under Bettors
The only game of the early Sunday slate that went over the total in the early slate did so in unbelievable fashion. With Jacksonville leading the game 17-14 in the third quarter, Jaguars players gave up on a play they believed was a simple incomplete pass. Never hearing a whistle, an opportunistic Colts defense slapped the ball out of the hands of Tank Bigsby. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner scooped up the ball and returned to the house for a touchdown.
The wild seven-point play had a major impact on the final betting outcome, factoring heavily into the game eventually surpassing the posted number of 45.
Strip Sack-Fumble TD In Final Seconds Results In Shock For Washington 1H Bettors
With only 1:02 remaining in the first half, bettors believed their wagers on both Washington and under 19 were safe as the Commanders were facing a 3rd and 10 from their own 26-yard line, nursing a 7-6 lead.
However, Arizona’s Cameron Thomas wiped out that ability to return to the betting windows.
Cardinals’ Dennis Gardeck broke through the Commanders line and sacked quarterback Sam Howell resulting in a loose ball that rolled close to the goal line. Thomas pounced on the fumble at the 2-yard line and scored with only :55 seconds left in the half.
The scoop-and-score prevented the Commanders from the highly popular first-half moneyline cash, while also sending the game over the first half total.
All Six Road Teams Win In the Late Slate
In the afternoon and Sunday night slate, all six road teams: Green Bay (+1.5), Las Vegas (+3.5), Miami (+3), Philadelphia (-3.5), Rams (+4.5) and the Cowboys (-3.5) emerged victorious. Only the Eagles and Cowboys were favored by oddsmakers, leading to four upsets that crushed square bettors who prefer investing in home-favorites.
Star Wideouts Cause Pain For Player Proposition Bettors
The opening game of the 2023 season featured a thrilling upset when the Lions went into Kansas City and beat the defending Super Bowl champions. It also led to arguably the first bad beat of the season for player proposition bettors.
Detroit star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown produced solid double-digit fantasy football points in PPR leagues. However, St. Brown burned bettors despite hauling in a game-high six receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown. After an 18-yard pass at the 8:05 mark of the third quarter, the emerging third-year wideout was held off the stat sheet for the remainder of the game, thus falling short of his betting demand of 6.5 receptions and 76.5 yards
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
On Sunday, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson once again surpassed expectations but several of the best wide receivers in the NFL crushed proposition bettors in Week 1 after posting shockingly underwhelming production.
The four elite wideouts, who were also heavily targeted in fantasy football drafts this summer, combined for a total of one reception for eight yards!
Atlanta’s Drake London (zero receptions; one target), Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins (zero receptions; eight targets), Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk (one reception for nine yards on three targets) and Kansas City’s Kadarius Toney (one reception for minus-one yard on five targets) destroyed Same-Game Parlay investments.
Ed Mulholland/USA Today Sports
Easy Money: One Bettor Wins $3.8 million On Sunday Night Football
On Sunday night, one bettor backed the Cowboys to beat the Giants as well as their star running back to find the end zone with two seven-figure wagers.
The bettor placed $1 million on Dallas at -3.5 as well as $1,000,000 on Tony Pollard to score an ‘Anytime Touchdown’.
Pollard’s, first of two rushing touchdowns on the night came in the second quarter and helped the Cowboys to a 26-0 halftime lead
Following the 40-0 blowout of the Giants, the correlated wagers resulted in perhaps the most stress-free $3.8 million payout you may ever see.
One Lucky Bettor Hit a 14-Team Parlay & Turned $10 into $87,000
One bettor, went a perfect 14-for-14 on a $10 parlay that returned $87,000. The winner selected nine underdogs and five favorites, commencing with the Lions on Thursday night football and ending with a dramatic come-from-behind last second win by the Dolphins.
Incredible Catch, Shocking Jets Come-From-Behind Victory Leads To $390,000 Win
Garrett Wilson's incredible one-handed fourth-quarter touchdown reception, coupled with the Jets shocking 22-16 come-from-behind win over the Bills on Monday Night Football, netted one lucky bettor $390,000 on a Same Game Parlay.
SURVIVOR POOL
Recap
In Week 1, Survivor Pool contestants in Las Vegas heavily used Washington (-7) over Arizona, Baltimore (-9.5) over Houston, Minnesota (-4) over Tampa Bay and Seattle (-4.5) over the Rams.
As we know, the allure of using heavily favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game. Entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
In the opening week, the Commanders, Ravens, Vikings and Seahawks massively made up 88.3% of the selections in the $9.3 million contest.
While the Commanders and Ravens earned opening-week victories, the Vikings and Seahawks knocked out 17.8% of the pool after both lost. In addition, the Chiefs, Bears, and Chargers, all home favorites, also eliminated a solid amount of entrants after suffering season-opening losses.
Look-Ahead
In Week 2, contestants will look to exploit the biggest perceived mismatches on the slate.
Here are four games that will likely be heavily selected by Survivor Pool entrants:
Eagles (-7.5) vs Vikings (TNF)
Bills (-9.5) vs Raiders
49ers (-8) at Rams
Lions (-6.5) vs Seahawks
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