NFL Week 11 Five Best Over/Under Bets

The Eagles and Chiefs combined for 73 points in Super Bowl LVII but they won’t reach that total on Monday night.

Touchdowns drastically increased last week across the NFL with seven teams scoring 30 points or more.

There were also five games that surpassed 50 total points, including the 41–38 thriller between the Lions and Chargers. But my formula of favoring the under bets on a weekly basis again delivered winning results. I went 3–2 for my five best over/under bets in Week 10, including two over bets that hit.

Despite the recent surge in points, I’m going to stick with my method of three under bets and two over bets. 

Here are the five best over/under bets for Week 11 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).

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1. Bears (3–7) at Lions (7–2)

• Over/Under: 46.5
• Prediction: Under

The combination of running backs Montgomery and Gibbs is proving to be a formidable force for the Lions attack.

The Lions probably would have run the ball well over 40 times had the defense gotten a few stops during last week’s shootout win against the Chargers. Detroit didn’t run as much in the second half with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to keep pace with a red-hot Justin Herbert. The Bears don’t have Herbert on their side but they might get back Justin Fields, who’s known for running the ball more than most quarterbacks. Expect a slow pace between two teams that prefer to run the ball. The Bears surprisingly have a solid run defense, only allowing 76 rushing yards per game, which ranked second in the NFL heading into Week 11. But the Bears haven’t faced a running back tandem as good as Montgomery and Gibbs—they combined for 193 rushing yards vs. the Chargers.

2. Cardinals (2–8) at Texans (5–4)

• Over/Under: 47.5
• Prediction: Over

The Cardinals trotted a new team last week with quarterback Kyler Murray and running back James Conner returning from injury. Murray made plays with his arm and legs to help the Cardinals score 25 points and gain 352 yards in the victory against the Falcons. Look for the Cardinals to top those numbers against a suspect Texans’ defense that allowed 37 points to the Buccaneers in Week 9 and 27 points to the Bengals last week. Luckily for the Texans, rookie sensation C.J. Stroud has carried the offense to new heights during their two-game winning streak. Houston dropped 39 points and 496 yards on Tampa Bay and followed by scoring 30 and gaining 544 yards vs. the Bengals. Stroud vs. Murray might be a must-watch game this week.

3. Chargers (4–5) at Packers (3–6)

• Over/Under: 44.5
• Prediction: Over

The Chargers scored touchdowns on their final five possessions and still found a way to lose to the Lions. That should tell you enough about Brandon Staley’s poor defense in L.A. Yes, the Chargers are playing a lackluster Packers’ offense, but it wouldn’t be surprising if quarterback Jordan Love produces 20-plus points against one of the worst secondaries in the league. Herbert can certainly light up the Packers’ inconsistent defense, especially with the way wide receiver Keenan Allen has played this season. Herbert threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns, and Allen contributed 175 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the loss to the Lions.

4. Seahawks (6–3) at Rams (3–6)

• Over/Under: 46.5
• Prediction: Under

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has an injured finger, is on track to play vs. the Sehawks, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the offense will score touchdowns. The Rams haven’t cracked 20 points since Week 6 vs. the Cardinals. That’s also the last time the Rams had running back Kyren Williams, who could return from the injured reserve list next week. But for this week, Stafford & Co. have a tough matchup vs. the Seahawks’ talented defense, which features linebacker Bobby Wagner and cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen. If the Seahawks jump to an early lead, expect Pete Carroll to lean on his running backs, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.

5. Eagles (8–1) at Chiefs (7–2)

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• Over/Under: 45.5
• Prediction: Under

This will probably be a physical matchup with a Super Bowl-like atmosphere. In February, these two teams combined for 73 points, as the Chiefs defeated the Eagles for their second Super Bowl title in the Patrick Mahomes era. But these aren’t the same teams, especially not on the offensive side for the Chiefs. Mahomes hasn’t received much help from his inexperienced wide receivers this season. Before the bye week, Kansas City scored nine points in the Week 8 loss vs. the Broncos and only managed 14 points against the Dolphins in Germany in Week 9. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and the rest of the Eagles’ offense haven’t had much issues finding the end zone, but they have a daunting task of facing a stout Chiefs’ defense at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is only allowing 15.9 points per game, second best in the NFL heading into Week 11.

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