2026 British Open Score Predictions: Winning Total Pick at Royal Birkdale

The last time the British Open was hosted at Royal Birkdale, Jordan Spieth was at the peak of his powers, winning with a score of 12-under-par in 2017. Nine years later, we're back at this course with the best golfers in the world competing for the Claret Jug.

I've already given you my best bets to win this week. In this article, I'm going to take things one step further. Not only am I going to predict the winning score this week, but I'm also going to predict the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.

British Open Score Predictions

All odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

British Open Winning Score: -10

I expect this year's edition of the British Open to play a couple of strokes more difficult than it did in 2017. We have seen some recent renovations to the course, including the raising of a few greens, and all signs point to the conditions playing firm and fast. With that being said, it's not going to all of a sudden score like a U.S. Open, but I think a winning score of 10-under-par makes a ton of sense.

Scottie Scheffler (+700) Score Prediction: -5

I'm not going to sit here and write that Scottie Scheffler is going to miss the cut for a second straight week, but I don't think he's going to truly be in contention on Sunday. Losing strokes with his approach play last week is a cause for concern, and I think going from a missed cut to playing well enough to win a major is too much to ask for, even from the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world.

Rory McIlroy (+850) Score Prediction: -6

Rory McIlroy has finished T7 or better in three of the last four British Opens, and I expect a similar result from him this week. He finished T7 at last week's Scottish Open, but it's worth noting he lost strokes with his approach play in that tournament. He's going to have to figure out his irons this week if he wants to win a second major this year.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1500) Score Prediction: -8

This is a home game for Tommy Fleetwood, and he's been playing some consistent golf of late. With that being said, can you imagine the man who's famous for melting under pressure on Sundays meeting the moment this weekend? I certainly can't. He may be in the mix in the final round, but the moment will prove too big for the Englishman.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1500) Score Prediction: -10

Matt Fitzpatrick is my best bet to win this week. I wrote about why in my full betting preview:

Matt Fitzpatrick is poised to win his second career major, and this week's British Open at Royal Birkdale makes plenty of sense. He has three wins this season and has posted a top-five finish in three of his last four starts, including a T3 finish at last week's Scottish Open, where he led the field in strokes gained approach, averaging +1.99 per round. An uncharacteristically bad performance around the greens kept him from winning, but if he can sharpen up in that area this week, there's no reason why he can't win.

Fitzpatrick's accuracy is going to give him a leg up on the competition this week. Avoiding the pot bunkers is crucial at this course, so anyone who is wayward either off the tee or with their irons is going to become familiar with Royal Birkdale's 123 bunkers.

Jon Rahm (+2000) Score Prediction: Missed Cut

I have a lot of issues with Jon Rahm heading into this week. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open and then finished T36 at last week's Scottish Open. In both those events, he lost significant strokes with both his approach play and his short game, which is a disaster waiting to happen at Royal Birkdale. His driver isn't going to save him this week.

Xander Schauffele (+2700) Score Prediction: +1

Xander Schauffele is another golfer who has struggled recently, coming off a T51 finish at the Travelers Championship and a missed cut at the Scottish Open. His British Open history is good enough to make me think he'll make the cut this week, but the recent form will lead to him being a complete non-factor.

Collin Morikawa (+3000) Score Prediction: +3

Collin Morikawa is one of the few golfers who didn't tee it up in Scotland last week, but if you're looking to bet on him as a former winner, I'd encourage you to be cautious. His results at the British Open haven't been good since his 2021 win. In his four starts here since then, he has missed the cut three times. I don't have a lot of faith in him at Royal Birkdale.

Tyrrell Hatton (+3000) Score Prediction: -4

Tyrrell Hatton should have plenty of confidence coming into this week. He won his last LIV event, then finished T7 at the U.S. Open and T17 at the Scottish Open. One area of concern is his iron play last week, but I expect him to turn that around and match it with his short game to post another solid finish this week. He has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last six starts at the British Open.

Viktor Hovland (+3000) Score Prediction: -1

Viktor Hovland has played extremely well lately, including winning the Travelers Championship, but I'm hesitant to trust a guy whose short game, specifically his chipping, has let him down over the past few years. Getting up and down is always going to be a crucial aspect of winning a British Open, and I don't trust Hovland to be able to do that well enough to contend this week.

Robert MacIntyre (+3000) Score Prediction: -9

Robert MacIntyre is also one of my best bets to win this week, but I obviously can't pick two winners for this article. So, instead, I'll bet on the Scot to finish as the runner-up:

I've been waiting for when Robert MacIntyre was going to start peaking this season, and now seems like the right time. He has finished inside the top 15 in three of his last four starts, including a T3 finish at last week's Scottish Open, gaining +2.49 strokes on the field with his approach play. He already has some strong finishes at the British Open, including a T6 finish in 2019, a T8 finish in 2021, and a T7 finish last year. This could be the week he wins his first career major.

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