2026 World Cup Odds Ahead of Quarterfinals (France Set as Favorite; Can Argentina Repeat?)

The 2026 FIFA World Cup takes a pause on Wednesday, July 8, as the quarterfinals are set to begin on Thursday after a wild finish to the Round of 16.

Lionel Messi and Argentina kept their hopes of repeating alive, scoring three unanswered goals to stun Egypt and advance to the quarterfinals for the fourth time in their last five World Cup appearances.

Then, Switzerland and Colombia played a 0-0 tie all the way into penalty kicks, where the Swiss won on the final PK to advance to the quarterfinals for the first time since 1954.

With just eight teams remaining, now is a perfect time to take a step back and look at the odds to win this entire tournament. France entered action as the favorite, and Kylian Mbappe and Co. remain in that spot ahead of Thursday’s match against Morocco – a rematch of the 2022 World Cup semifinals.

Meanwhile, Spain (+370), Argentina (+400) and England (+470) are grouped together in the chasing pack while no other team has shorter than 15/1 odds to win it all.

Odds to Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

France: +180
Spain: +370
Argentina: +400
England: +470
Norway: +1500
Morocco: +2800
Switzerland: +3000
Belgium: +3000

France

France is a perfect 5-0 in the World Cup, though it did have some trouble with Paraguay in the Round of 16. Paraguay attempted to park the bus and force PK’s – Paraguay had just 0.13 expected goals in that match – but it didn’t work with Mbappe scoring on a penalty in the 70th minute.

There seems to be a clear consensus that France is the most talented team, but the path to the final isn’t easy with Spain potentially waiting in the semifinals. Still, France is 9-0-1 in its last 10 international matches, averaging 1.98 expected goals per game.

Spain

Spain was my bet to win the World Cup before the tournament started, and I still feel confident in that selection entering the quarterfinals.

Lamine Yamal and Co. haven’t been dominant on offense (nine goals in five matches), but Spain has not allowed a single goal in this tournament. Belgium’s high-powered offense will be an interesting test in the quarterfinals, but I think there’s some value in Spain in what should be a toss-up match in the semis against France (if both advance). The current price for Spain isn’t that much better from where it was pre-tournament (+450).

Argentina

Simply put, Messi is inevitable.

He tied the game against Egypt in the Round of 16 with a thunderous shot, and the best player in the world has his team in a very favorable spot against a Switzerland team that has never advanced past the quarterfinals at the World Cup.

Argentina is likely going to be favored to reach the final out of the bottom half of the bracket.

England

Harry Kane and England survived a thrilling Round of 16 matchup with Mexico, but England has not made a semifinal appearance since 2018 and has not won it all since 1966.

Erling Haaland and Norway are the most popular “underdogs” left on the board, and they could pose some problems in the quarterfinals.

Norway

This is the first-ever quarterfinal appearance for Norway, and Haaland has been the driving force, putting himself in the Golden Boot conversation with seven goals in this tournament.

It’s possible that he wills Norway to another win in the quarterfinals, but it’s important to note that Norway is allowing more expected goals per game over its last 10 games than any other quarterfinal team.

Morocco

Morocco’s path to a World Cup Final is insanely hard, as it has to take on France in the quarterfinals and could face Spain (who takes on Belgium) in the semifinals if it advances. Morocco had an impressive Round of 16 win over Canada, but it hasn’t scored a ton in this tournament, finishing with one or fewer goals in three of five matches.

Over its last 10 international matches, Morocco is averaging just 1.51 expected goals per game. That could limit this team’s ceiling against some of the top squads in the world.

Switzerland

Switzerland survived the Round of 16 despite registering just 0.39 expected goals, but now it has to face the defending champs in Argentina in the quarterfinals. It’s hard to see this team winning three more games, especially with the winner of England-Norway awaiting in the semis.

Belgium

Belgium’s offense is one of the best in the World Cup, as this team is averaging 2.21 expected goals per game over its last 10 international matches and has scored 12 times over the last three games.

Now, it has an ultimate test against Spain, which hasn’t allowed a single goal in the World Cup. If Belgium’s offense wins out in that matchup, this team may be priced much differently in the semis in a potential showdown with France.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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