Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 3

Aryna Sabalenka has made it to the final at three of the four Grand Slam tournaments, but the Wimbledon final has eluded her. She's hoping to change that this year, entering as the tournament's favorite.

She has made quick work of her first two opponents, and now she's set to take on Jelena Ostapenko in third-round action on Friday. Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

Aryna Sabalenka -450 (81.82% implied probability)
Jelena Ostapenko +340

Total

20.5 (Over -124/Under -108)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 2
Time: 10:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko: History and Wimbledon Performance

These two have faced each other four times before, with Sabalenka going 3-1 in those matches. Ostapenko won the most recent match, defeating Sabalenka 64, 61 at Stuttgart in 2025.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka is looking to get over the hump at Wimbledon. She has made the semifinals here in three of the past five years, but has fallen short each time. Last year, she lost to Amanda Anisimova in the semi-finals. Her wins in the first two rounds this year have come against McCartney Kessler and Teodora Kostovic.

Jelena Ostapenko

Ostapenko announced her presence early in her career when she won the 2017 French Open, but has yet to find the same level of success in singles play. She made it to the semi-finals at Wimbledon in 2018, but has made it to the quarter-finals just once since then, in 2024. She has a career 67% win here, the best of her four grand slams. She defeated Antonia Ruzic and Harriet Dart in the first two rounds.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko Prediction and Best Bet

Ostapenko likely won't win this match, but there's still value in backing her to cover the 4.5-game spread. She should have confidence coming into it after defeating Sabalenka last year. She also has had much more consistent success at Wimbledon, both in singles and doubles play.

Sabalenka deserves to be a sizable favorite, but needing a tiebreaker in her second set against McCartney Kessler shows that she's not completely unflappable when facing inferior competition.

I'll back Ostapenko to cover the game spread as the underdog.

Pick: Jelena Ostapenko +4.5 (-110) via FanDuel

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