Ben Rice Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction (Bet on Yankees Slugger as Dark Horse)

New York Yankees All-Star Ben Rice is having by far the best season of his young career, and he’s set to make his MLB Home Run Derby debut on Monday night.

Rice enters the All-Star break with 29 home runs, and he’s been red hot as of late, hitting .400 with five home runs over his last eight games. The Yankees star is third in MLB in home runs (behind Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez), yet he’s viewed as a long shot in the odds to win the Home Run Derby.

Oddsmakers have Rice in seventh (+850) out of eight players in the odds to win the derby, as only Boston’s Willson Contreras (+1400) has worse odds.

The format of the derby has changed this year, as after several years of timed rounds, MLB is reverting back to a finite number of swings: 20 in the first round, 15 in the second round and 15 in the final round.

It’ll be interesting to see how Rice navigates his first-ever derby appearance, as he looks to become the first Yankee since Aaron Judge (2017) to win it.

I have a few bets to consider for Rice in this event, but first, let’s examine his odds.

Ben Rice Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win: +850
To Make the Final: +400
Round 1 Total: 9.5 (Over +110/Under -130)
To Make the Semifinals: +125
To Have Longest Home Run: +2800

Ben Rice Home Run Derby Prediction

I’ll get straight to it: I love Rice as a dark horse bet in the Home Run Derby. Earlier today, I previewed the entire field for the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby, and Rice stands out as a player that could take advantage of the dimensions at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

While Rice doesn’t have the most pure power in this field – his longest home run this season is 433 feet – he does play at Yankee Stadium where there is a clear advantage to hitting the ball to right field. Luckily for Rice, the same goes for Citizens Bank Park.

The stadium is slightly shorter down the right-field line (330 feet) than the left-field line (334 feet), and the right-center field area (369 feet) is shorter than left-center field (374 feet). While Rice is going to need to really step on some swings if he attacks the gaps, there are some interesting advance numbers that favor left-handed hitters in this event.

According to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors metric, Citizens Bank Park is a perfect place for a Home Run Derby, as it ranks seventh in overall park factor and No. 8 for home runs. The ranking for the “average” MLB stadium is 100 when it comes to park factor, but Citizens Bank Park has a home run factor of 110 in the 2026 season, which means 10 percent more home runs were observed at Citizens Bank Park than the average MLB stadium.

In addition to that, left-handed hitters have a home run park factor of 115 at Citizen’s Bank Park, which is better than right-handed hitters (104) this season.

Rice enters the 2026 Home Run Derby on a hot streak, and I like his chances of taking advantage of the shorter porch in right field. He’s just +125 to advance out of the first round and make the semifinals, and I don’t mind him as a dark horse to win it all.

Pick: Rice to Win (+850); Rice to Reach Semifinals (+125)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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