Best Bets Today for June 30: Day 177 of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year (Picks for MLB and World Cup Action)

After a few hot days, we took an unfortunate big step back on Monday, suffering a dreaded reverse sweep to lose all $100. We got aggressive with four plus-money bets, one being +240 and one beting +500, and paid the price.

The good news is we're still in the green for this year, so let's try to bounce back tonight. Let's dive into my favorite bets.

Betting $100 Every Day for a Year Record

Yesterday: 0-4 (-$100)
Year-to-date: 305-327-9 (+$71.69)

June 30 Picks and Best Bets

$20: Ivory Coast to Qualify (+146) vs. Norway via FanDuel
$30: France -1.5 (-125) vs. Sweden via DraftKings
$20: Ecuador to Qualify (+146) vs. Mexico via FanDuel
$30: Nationals +118 vs. Red Sox via Caesars

Ivory Coast vs. Norway Prediction

Pick: $20 Ivory Coast to Qualify (+146)

Don't let the fact that Norway has Erling Haaland make you think that they're a better team than they are. Norway has an expected goal differential of -0.26 per 90 minutes played. There is no doubt they can create offense, but their defense has plenty of issues. Now, they take on an Ivory Coast team with similar numbers, an expected goal differential of -0.17 per 90 minutes played.

In my opinion, the result of this game should be closer to 50-50. I'll take a chance on the Ivory Coast at +146.

France vs. Sweden Prediction

Pick: $30 on France -1.5 (-125)

France is part of the select few teams in this tournament that are head and shoulders above the rest of the competition, and I'd make the argument that Sweden belongs in, at best, the third tier of teams. The Swedes have a defensive problem, sporting an expected goals against per 90 minutes of 1.09. That's bad news against a French attacking front that features Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele. I'm going to bet on France proving that they're the team to beat in this tournament with a dominant win against an inferior team.

Mexico vs. Ecuador Prediction

Pick: $20 on Ecuador to Qualify +146

Let's remember that Mexico benefited from playing in arguably the weakest group in the World Cup. Wins against the likes of South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa don't do enough to move the needle for me, especially when you consider their subpar expected goals numbers in those matches. Mexico finished the group stage with an expected goal differential of just +0.35 per 90 minutes of play. Now, they face their toughest match yet in Ecuador.

Ecuador finished the group stage with an expected goal differential per 90 minutes of +0.53, while having to play against teams like Germany and the Ivory Coast.

I love Ecuador at plus-money to advance to the Round of 16.

Nationals vs. Red Sox Prediction

Pick: $30 on Nationals +118

No team is better against left-handed pitchers than the Washington Nationals, who are first in wRC+ with an OPS of .768 when facing lefties. At the same time, only two teams rank lower in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers than the Boston Red Sox. Tonight, those two teams will have each other with a right-handed pitcher in Cade Cavalli (4.00 ERA) getting the start for the Nationals and Connelly Early (3.59 ERA) getting the start as a lefty for the Red Sox.

That lines up for the Nationals being a great underdog bet at Fenway park tonight.

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