Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Aaron Judge, Elly De La Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.)

There’s nothing more exciting in Major League Baseball than watching a player hit a home run, which is why we bet on home runs being hit every night here at SI Betting.

In Tuesday’s edition of Daily Dinger – our best home run props column – I cashed a pick for New York Mets slugger Juan Soto to go deep, as he homered for the second time in the 2026 season in a win over the Washington Nationals.

The Soto pick was pretty simple, as it was a total fade of one of the worst starters in MLB so far this season (Zack Littell) and a shaky Washington bullpen.

On Wednesday, I’m looking for a few more pitchers to fade, and I’ve landed on Aaron Judge and Elly De La Cruz to headline today’s home run picks.

While betting on home run props can be tricky – after all even the best players aren’t hitting much more than 50-60 homers in a season – they also offer some pretty favorable odds that can make some small wagers worth your while.

So, let’s take a look at how I’m betting on Wednesday’s slate, with a ton of teams set to play this afternoon.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, April 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+261)

Aaron Judge socked his 12th home run of the season in Tuesday’s win over the Texas Rangers, and the New York Yankees star has a favorable matchup in the series finale between these teams on Wednesday afternoon.

Judge is taking on Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed nine home runs in six appearances in the 2026 season, posting a 5.79 ERA. Eovaldi has also given up 39 hits in 32.2 innings of work.

In his career against Eovaldi, Judge is 12-for-37 with two doubles, two home runs and a .931 OPS. After a slow start to the season, Judge is hitting .302 with six home runs and nine extra-base hits over his last two weeks of action (13 games). He’s homered seven times against right-handed pitching, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes deep again after hitting a clutch homer on Tuesday night.

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+329)

Cincinnati Reds star Elly De La Cruz is off to a great start this season, hitting .291 with 10 home runs and an .951 OPS. He’s really been hot over the last two weeks, especially when it comes to his power.

Cruz is hitting .300 with five homers over his last 12 games, and he’s hitting .368 with two homers over the last week. His OPS is over 1.000 during both of those stretches, making him an intriguing bet against the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday.

Colorado has righty Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound, and he’s been an auto-fade in this market since entering MLB in 2025. Sugano allowed an American League-high 33 home runs in the 2025 season while he was with the Baltimore Orioles, and he’s already given up five homers in five starts this season.

Cruz has thrived from both sides of the plate, hitting five homers against lefties and five against righties. I’m buying him to stay hot on Wednesday.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+502)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t hit for a ton of power in the 2026 season, making him an extreme value at +502 to go deep on Wednesday afternoon against the Boston Red Sox.

Guerrero is still hitting .340 this season with an .888 OPS, so the power is going to come around at some point since he’s seen the ball so well. I think it could change in a favorable matchup with Boston’s Brayan Bello, who allowed five homers in his last start and has given up eight long balls in five starts this season.

Bello has a terrible 9.00 ERA, allowing 37 hits in 22.0 innings of work. He’s also struggled against Guerrero in his career.

The Blue Jays star is hitting .400 with a 1.153 OPS against Bello, going 12-for-30 with four doubles, two homers and 10 runs batted in.

At +502, Guerrero is certainly worth a dart throw in this series finale.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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