Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, More)

A condensed MLB slate takes place on Monday, April 27, as just 16 teams are in action after a wild weekend that saw the Boston Red Sox fire Alex Cora and others – the first firing of the 2026 season.

Boston is back in action on Monday against the Toronto Blue Jays, but that game isn’t one that I’m targeting when it comes to home run props.

Betting on home run props isn’t easy, but there usually are more favorable odds associated with this market. For example, there are two star players I’m eyeing at +355 or higher to go deep on Monday, and only one of today’s bets would need to cash for us to leave with a profit. Not bad!

There’s a trio of left-handed starters that I’m fading on Monday, including Chicago Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, who has struggled against San Diego Padres star Manny Machado in his career.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of these props on Monday night.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, April 27

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+355)

Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez has hit six homers in the 2026 season, and he’s batting .295 with four homers over his last two weeks of action.

Ramirez has been much better against left-handed pitching (hitting .281) in the 2026 season, and four of his homers have come against southpaws. That puts him in a great spot on Monday, as the Tampa Bay Rays have lefty Steven Matz on the mound.

This season, Matz ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel percentage and the 25th percentile in expected ERA. He’s allowed five home runs in five starts, including three in a recent loss to the Cincinnati Reds.

While Ramirez is just 2-for-11 against Matz in his career, his power this season has come when he’s hitting from the right side. I think the Guardians star is worth a look at this price, especially since the Tampa Bay bullpen is 26th in ERA and has given up 20 homers in the 2026 campaign.

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+444)

San Diego Padres star Manny Machado is hitting just .209 with four home runs this season, but he’s homered twice in his last five games heading into Monday’s matchup.

The Padres are taking on the Chicago Cubs and lefty Matthew Boyd, who allowed a home run in his season debut and comes into this game with a 5.79 ERA.

Machado has dominated Boyd in his career, going 5-for-13 (.385) with two doubles and three runs batted in. So, I don’t mind him at this price to go deep on Monday.

After a slow start, Machado has started to turn things around, posting an .890 OPS over the last week of action.

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+402)

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Jo Adell has crushed left-handed pitching this season, and he has a chance to keep that up on Monday against the Chicago White Sox.

Anthony Kay (5.57 ERA) is on the mound for Chicago for his sixth start of the season, and he’s already allowed four homers in the 2026 campaign. Kay ranks in the fourth percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average against, so the L.A. offense should be able to get to him in the early innings.

Adell has homered four times in the 2026 season (all against southpaws), and he’s hitting .316 with a 1.004 OPS against lefties. While Adell isn’t usually one of the top picks in this market, he’s hard to fade against a struggling lefty, especially when the bullpen behind him has given up 16 homers this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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