Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr.)

Thursday’s MLB action features a smaller slate of games, as few teams have a rest day – one of their final ones – with the regular season winding down.

Still, that’s not going to stop the SI Betting team from delivering some home run props, and there are a few top-tier sluggers to consider on Sept. 17.

One of those sluggers is Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero, who hit a walk-off home run earlier this week (cashing a prop in this column in the process). He has a very favorable matchup this afternoon against an Athletics team that has one of the worst pitching staff in MLB.

Caminero isn’t the only player to target on Thursday, as I’m eyeing three home run props in total for the day’s action.

Betting on home runs can be tough, as even the best players are only going yard in about six to eight percent of their at-bats. However, cashing a home run prop also often brings a pretty nice payout since players are basically always set at plus money.

Let’s check out the odds and analysis behind each of these picks in today’s edition of Daily Dinger.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Sept. 17

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+314)

Caminero (41 homer runs) has been one of the best power hitters in Major League Baseball this season, and he’s hitting .299 with six home runs over his last 25 games.

The Rays third baseman has a great matchup against Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs on Thursday afternoon. Spring has allowed 33 home runs in 27 appearances this season, posting a 5.93 ERA. He has the worst bullpen in MLB (5.38 ERA) behind him, so there’s a good chance Caminero gets a plus matchup against a reliever as well on Thursday night.

In his career against Spring, Caminero is 2-for-4 with a double and a 1.350 OPS. Even though he only has eight home runs against southpaws this season, Caminero is hitting .296 with a .946 OPS against them.

I’m buying him to stay hot with the Rays looking to hold off the New York Yankees in the AL East.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+299)

New York Mets star Juan Soto has been slumping a bit since coming off the injured list, hitting .221 with just four homers and a .729 OPS across 16 games.

Soto has 25 home runs in 101 games (100 starts) in the 2026 season, including 20 long balls against right-handed pitching. He’s hitting .281 against righties in 2026, and he’s facing a familiar one on Thursday when the Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Aaron Nola (4.69 ERA) is on the mound for the Phils, and he’s allowed 34 home runs in 30 outings this season. In fact, Nola has allowed at least one home run in 22 games in the 2026 campaign, making him one of the easier pitchers to fade in the league.

Soto has some strong career numbers against Nola, going 12-for-43 (.279) with five homers, two doubles, 19 runs batted in and 1.174 OPS. Even at this price (below 3/1), I’m willing to take a shot on the Mets star in this series opener.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+272)

There aren’t many hitters in MLB hotter than San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr.

The three-time All-Star is hitting .301 with 18 home runs and a .991 OPS since the All-Star break, homering eight times in his last 24 games.

Over the last week, Tatis Jr. has three home runs, a .320 batting average and a 1.193 OPS.

Now, he takes on Colorado Rockies righty Tanner Gordon, who has given up 18 home runs in 22 outings in 2026. The Rockies have one of the worst pitching staffs in the league, ranking 27th in bullpen ERA (4.94).

Tatis has hit 14 of his 23 homers this season against right-handed pitching, and I’m willing to bet that he stays hot for a Padres team in the middle of a playoff race in the NL.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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