Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Shohei Ohtani, Junior Caminero, Reds Slugger)

A pair of MVP candidates headline today’s edition of Daily Dinger, and yours truly is looking to build on one of the best showings in this column of the season.

On Tuesday, I correctly predicted home run props for both Pete Crow-Armstrong (+332) and Joc Pederson (+239), giving those who tailed these picks a huge winning day.

So, why not stay hot on Wednesday?

There are a bunch of games that begin before 5 p.m. EST on Aug. 12, and I’m eyeing AL MVP candidate Junior Caminero (who has homered in two games in a row) to stay hot against the Athletics.

Plus, Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani is due to leave the yard in a favorable matchup against the struggling Kansas City Royals.

Betting on home runs isn’t easy, but days like Tuesday are why this prop market can be so exciting. Let’s keep the momentum going with three more bets on Aug. 12.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+214)

Caminero has left the yard in back-to-back games, pushing his season total to 35 home runs ahead of Wednesday’s series finale against the Athletics.

Sutter Health Park has been extremely friendly to hitters this season, and Statcast’s Park Factors back up the raw numbers. According to Statcast, Sutter Health Park has an overall Park Factor of 113 this season, making it the most favorable stadium for hitters – even ahead of Coors Field.

When it comes to the home run park factor (the percentage of homers observed at Sutter Health Park compared to the average stadium), it ranks second in the league (126 when league average is 100) to only Nationals Park. This means there are 26 percent more home runs observed at Sutter Health Park than the average MLB stadium.

So, I wouldn’t be shocked if Caminero goes deep again on Wednesday afternoon.

The Athletics are starting right-hander Jack Perkins, who ranks in the 10th percentile in ground-ball rate this season and has allowed 15 home runs in 28 appearances (mostly out of the bullpen).

Caminero’s batting average has slipped a bit recently, but he’s still homered seven times over his last 25 games. I’ll gladly back him against a shaky Athletics pitching staff on Aug. 12.

Sal Stewart to Hit a Home Run (+451)

Cincinnati Reds rookie Sal Stewart has put together a monster 2026 season, hitting .254 with 25 home runs and an .803 OPS.

Stewart has done a lot of his damage against right-handed pitching, homering 19 times even though he’s posted a better batting average against lefties. The Reds star has also been on a power surge, going deep six times in his last 22 games.

That puts him in a good spot against the Chicago White Sox and veteran right-hander Luis Castillo (a former Red).

Castillo has a 5.30 ERA this season, and he’s been rocked in his last four starts, allowing eight home runs. Overall, the former All-Star has given up 17 home runs in 21 appearances this season.

The Reds have a few potential targets in this market, but Stewart has been the hottest hitter out of their top home-run hitters as of late. I think he’s worth a look at this price on Wednesday.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+303)

Ohtani is in a serious race with Pete Crow-Armstrong for the NL MVP, and he’s hitting well over the last two weeks, posting a .319 batting average with three home runs in 12 games.

Now, Ohtani takes on a Kansas City team that will rely heavily on its bullpen on Wednesday night. Reliever Daniel Lynch IV is making the start in this game, and he lasted just 1.2 innings in his last outing.

Lynch has given up just two home runs in the 2026 season, but the rest of the Royals bullpen is extremely weak. Kansas City has the No. 29 bullpen ERA (5.36) this season and has allowed 71 home runs.

That’s a great sign for Ohtani, as he should face multiple pitchers that are prone to the long ball.

Overall, Ohtani is hitting .290 this season with 26 homers and a solid .929 OPS.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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