Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 1 (Bet Cowboys to Crush Giants on Sunday Night Football)

The first Sunday of the NFL season is here, so if you haven't already, it's time to lock in your bets.

I have a little bit of something for everyone in this article, including a bet on an underdog, a favorite, and a total. Let's dive into them.

NFL Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Panthers +148 vs. Bears
Cardinals vs. Chargers OVER 47.5 (-104)
Cowboys -3 (-108) vs. Giants

Bears vs. Panthers Best Bet

In the weekly SI upset picks panel, I made the case for taking the Panthers to upset the Bears:

My upset pick of the week is on the Carolina Panthers to beat the Chicago Bears outright. I have been pointing at the Bears as my No. 1 regression candidate all season, so it'd be hypocritical of me if I didn't pick them to lose in the opening week.

I have a lot of issues with this Bears team and their ability to replicate their season from a year ago. They went 7-4 in one-score games last season, and six of their wins came in games where they were down with two minutes or less to go. They also led the entire NFL in average turnover differential per game at +0.9. Those two factors alone are going to be extremely difficult to replicate, so they'll have to be a much better team to have another strong record.

Unfortunately, they lost one of their best receivers, DJ Moore, and their defense got inarguably worse. I also want to point out that Caleb Williams had some exciting late-game heroics last season, but he finished the year 20th in adjusted EPA per play and 29th in completion percentage over expected. Those are worrying, to say the least.

I'd be lying if I said I think the Panthers are the better team, but with them being set as home underdogs in an unpredictable Week 1, I'll take a chance on Carolina upsetting the team I most expect to take a step back in 2026.

Pick: Panthers +148

Cardinals vs. Chargers Best Bet

If you want to sit back and root for points in a game today, I think the game to do it for is the interconference showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers' offense may be entering its peak this season. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are healthy, and now Mike McDaniel takes over as offensive coordinator. This could be one of the most fun offenses to watch in football this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers' defense will have to try to move on from defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who is now the head coach of Baltimore. It may take them a few weeks to hit their stride.

For the Cardinals, I have a lot of concerns about their defense, which was one of the worst in the league a season ago, but you can't deny the fact that they have some weapons on offense. Between Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, and a one-two punch in the backfield between Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier, they can move the ball down the field.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-104)

Cowboys vs. Giants Best Bet

In the Week 1 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm betting the Cowboys to win and cover against the Giants on Sunday Night Football:

I'm not ready to buy the hype on the New York Giants. I understand that John Harbaugh is going to do a lot of things to change the culture for the better, but have Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo proven enough to the point that they should only be slight underdogs against one of the best offenses in football from last season? I'm not buying it.

If the Cowboys can make defensive adjustments this year while matching last year's offensive production, they'll be a dangerous team to face.

Pick: Cowboys -3 (-108)

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