Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 4 (Bet the UNDER in Chiefs vs. Raiders)

Every week, myself and the rest of the SI betting team writes about our favorite bets for every single NFL game. In fact, you can find all of those plays in the Road to 272 Bets and the Player Prop Countdown.

If you missed those articles and just want a few of my top bets on sides and totals for today's action, don't worry; I'll simplify things. In this article, I'll give you my best bet on a favorite, an underdog, and a total for today's slate of games.

Best NFL Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jets +150 vs. Bears
Chiefs vs. Raiders UNDER 47.5 (-105)
Lions -3.5 (-112) vs. Panthers

Jets vs. Bears Best Bet

Don't bet on Chicago just because Case Keenum (who won't get the start in Week 4) looked good on Monday Night Football. These stories happen once a year, and while a backup quarterback can look amazing in his first start, he rarely sustains that level of play.

Now, the Bears turn to Tyson Bagent at quarterback in Week 4 against the Jets, who have played pretty well to open the 2026 season.

They aren't a playoff team, but they rank average to above average in many areas on both sides of the ball, and their special teams remain one of the league's best. If Bagent doesn't turn in a big performance in Week 4, the Jets are going to be live to win this game.

Pick: Jets +150

Chiefs vs. Raiders Best Bet

The Raiders' defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL to start the year, ranking second in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate. They've also allowed just 5.2 yards per snap.

The Kansas City defense has also been elite, ranking third in opponent yards per play (4.7), while also ranking sixth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

I understand this is a game that Patrick Mahomes will be playing in, but other than that, I'm surprised by the total of 47.5. Both defenses have been top-10 units, so I expect this total to go UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 47.5 (-105)

Lions vs. Panthers Best Bet

I'm still buying in on the Lions. They're going to start to get healthy on defense, and I still believe the betting market isn't evaluating them fairly. They have had the second-worst defensive luck through the first three weeks, according to RBSDM.com, which makes me even more confident in my conviction that this team is an NFC contender.

Meanwhile, last week showed me that maybe I was too quick to give Bryce Young credit after a hot start. He had a bad outing against the Cleveland Browns, so I don't think we can pencil in the Panthers racking up points against the Lions on Sunday.

I'll take Detroit to win and cover for the second straight week.

Pick: Lions -3.5 (-112)

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