Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Falcons vs. Saints on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 4)

Monday Night Football in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season heads to the NFC South as the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints battle to get back to .500 this season.

It's been a tale of two very different seasons for these squads, starting with Atlanta, which began the season at 0-2 with Michael Penix Jr. out of the lineup.

Cooper Rush really struggled in his place, and Atlanta was dead last in the league in EPA/Play on offense through the first two weeks of the season. But in Week 3, Penix returned and the Falcons dominated the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football, giving them an extra-long layoff heading into this crucial divisional matchup.

A win would put the Falcons with the best record in the NFC South, something that didn't seem possible after the first two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Saints have gained a ton of steam in the market to win the NFC South, yet they're just 1-2 through three games after losing to the Las Vegas Raiders as favorites in Week 3.

They find themselves favored again on Monday night in Week 4 as Tyler Shough and company look to build on a strong start to the season on the offensive end.

The Saints are set to be shorthanded in this matchup with Travis Etienne Jr. dealing with a hamstring injury, but they still have weapons on the outside that could make things tough on this Atlanta defense.

Every division game in the NFC South is going to be crucial, especially after last season saw a tiebreaker allow the Carolina Panthers win the division with an 8-9 record.

Can the Saints handle business at home? Will the Falcons pull off their second consecutive upset win?

In the lead-up to this matchup, the SI Betting team has been making picks, player prop selections and more to help you get the most out of this primetime matchup.

Here's a compilation of some of our favorite plays for Monday night's Falcons vs. Saints showdown.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Falcons vs. Saints

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+130) vs. New Orleans Saints – Iain MacMillan
Tyler Shough OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105) – Peter Dewey
Drake London OVER 5.5 Receptions (-148) – Iain MacMillan
Juwan Johnson Anytime TD (+230) – Peter Dewey

Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+130) vs. New Orleans Saints – Iain MacMillan

Each week, SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan shares his favorite pick for every NFL game in his Road to 272 column. He’s targeting the Falcons as one of his favorite upset picks:

I think we all saw just how different this Falcons team is with a competent quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. had a slow start against the Packers, but once he found his footing, the Falcons' offense looked elite, led by the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London.

Let's also give credit to the Falcons' defense, which is eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. If their offense can continue to improve and their defense can keep this level of play going, they're going to be a dangerous team.

I think I'm settling on the Saints being an average team. They're in the middle of the pack in both metrics, including ranking 15th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play.

Tyler Shough OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105) – Peter Dewey

The Saints love to throw the ball – and for good reason – as Shough ranks eighth in the NFL in success rate amongst quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season.

The former second-round pick has attempted 56, 34 and 42 passes in his three games, and I expect him to clear this line for the third time this season in Week 4.

The Falcons are a far better team against the run (first in EPA/Rush) so far this season than the pass (14th in EPA/Pass), and they rank 29th in the league in passing yards allowed.

Kellen Moore may want to lean on his passing game more with Travis Etienne Jr. banged up, and Shough as shown he’s more than capable of being effective while slinging the ball 40-plus times.

Drake London OVER 5.5 Receptions (-148) – Iain MacMillan

In this week’s edition of his Player Prop Countdown – where he picks his 10-best props of the week – MacMillan ranked this Drake London play at No. 3:

Last week proved that Drake London is a completely different player with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Penix loves to target his No. 1 receiver, as London hauled in nine receptions for 194 yards against the Packers, and not a single other pass-catcher on the team had more than two receptions. We only need him to haul in six receptions on Monday night for this bet to cash.

Juwan Johnson Anytime TD (+230) – Peter Dewey

Saints tight end Juwan Johnson has found the end zone in two of his three games this season, totaling three touchdowns overall.

The veteran tight end has become a favorite target for Shough, receiving 19 targets (15 receptions) through three weeks. He’s also been one of the most-targeted pass catchers in the red zone, reeling in four of his five looks and turning them into three scores.

The Falcons have already allowed three passing scores to opposing tight ends this season, and they rank 14th in EPA/Pass compared to first in EPA/Rush.

I expect the Saints to attack through the air as much as they can in Week 4.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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