Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Patriots vs. Bears on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 7)

Week 7 of the 2026 NFL season kicks off with two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL squaring off.

The New England Patriots and Drake Maye are riding a three-game winning streak into their primetime matchup with the Chicago Bears and former No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams on Thursday Night Football.

Williams is making his second straight start after he missed three games earlier this season with a hamstring injury. The star quarterback showed no signs of rust in Week 6, completing 30 of his 36 pass attempts in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, improving the Bears to 4-2 this season.

Chicago is favored in this matchup, and it needs every win it can get with the NFC North sporting four teams over .500 through the first six weeks. The Bears may be getting a little extra love in this matchup because of all the injuries for the Patriots, who have been decimated at receiver (Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs on IR) and on their offensive line.

Still, New England has won three games in a row, and Maye is back in the MVP conversation with 10 touchdown passes during that streak. He has a tough matchup ahead against a Chicago team that is in the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play and success rate on defense this season.

So, how should bettors attack Thursday’s showdown?

In the leadup to this marquee matchup, the SI Betting team has made a bunch of game picks, prop bet selections and more. I’ve decided to share some of our favorites all in one place to help bettors get the most of this primetime matchup between two playoff contenders in Week 7.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Patriots vs. Bears

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears UNDER 50.5 (-105) – Iain MacMillan
Drake Maye OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-116) – Peter Dewey
Colston Loveland Anytime TD (+170) – Peter Dewey
D’Andre Swift UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey

New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears UNDER 50.5 (-105) – Iain MacMillan

This week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this matchup in his Road to 272 column, where he picks every game of the NFL season. He’s taking the UNDER even with two star quarterbacks facing off:

Unless I'm missing something, I'm not quite sure why the total for this game is in the 50s. Sure, the Bears' offense is much more explosive with Caleb Williams at quarterback, but even with that being the case, these two offenses rank 12th and 14th in EPA per play this season and seventh and 12th in success rate. A high total would make sense if the two defenses in this game were bad, but they rank in the top half of the league in most metrics. In fact, the Bears' defense comes into this game ranking fourth in opponent success rate.

The Patriots' offense is also dealing with some injuries. A.J. Brown is questionable, and Romeo Doubs is on IR. Their run game can't be relied on to help out the injuries at wide receiver, as it's been largely ineffective all season.

I'll bet the UNDER on Thursday Night Football for the second straight week.

Drake Maye OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-116) – Peter Dewey

Maye started the season in an awful slump, throwing just one score and six picks in his first three games.

Since then, he’s flipped the script, tossing 10 scores (at least three in each game) over the last three weeks, leading New England to wins over Buffalo, Las Vegas and the New York Jets.

Maye is right back in the mix to win the MVP, and I like this matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed nine passing scores in 2026 and was torched by Bryce Young and Jordan Love already this season.

The Bears have benefitted from some soft scheduling in terms of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, but Love threw for 367 yards against them in Week 5, and Chicago has allowed the 15th-most passing yards in the league.

New England loves to throw the ball, and I think the odds for this prop are pretty favorable considering the fact that Maye threw 31 touchdown passes in 2025.

Colston Loveland Anytime TD (+170) – Peter Dewey

Bears tight end Colston Loveland had a breakout showing in Week 6, catching six of his seven targets for 65 yards and a score.

Williams only threw one touchdown in Week 6, but Loveland was targeted multiple times in the end zone – Caleb just missed him for a second score.

Last season, the young tight end really came on in the second half, finishing the campaign with six touchdown receptions. He’s only picked up one in 2026, and New England has allowed just one receiving score to the position this season.

Still, Loveland’s role is growing with 21 targets over the last three games. He’s a solid bet at this price after his best game of the season.

D’Andre Swift UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Peter Dewey

D’Andre Swift has a ton of carries for the Bears this season, handling 94 touches for 398 yards and six scores on the ground, but he hasn’t been super efficient since Week 1.

Swift ran for 124 yards on 18 carries against Carolina in the season opener, yet he has just one other game (Week 3 against Philadelphia) where he’s picked up over 60 rushing yards.

Backup Kyle Monangai (turf toe) has been banged up, but Swift still split time with Roschon Johnson in Week 6 and has played just 56.7 percent of the Bears’ snaps this season.

New England is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry in the 2026 campaign, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Swift came up short of this rushing total again on Thursday. He has averaged less than four yards per carry in two of the last three weeks, putting up 58, 43 and 44 rushing yards during that stretch.

Even if the volume is there for the veteran back, I think he’s a fade candidate in Week 7.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets + 3 months of NBA League Pass when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google