Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, July 5

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners have traded shutout wins in their holiday weekend series, setting up a rubber match on Sunday evening in Seattle.

Toronto has youngster Trey Yesavage (3.34 ERA) on the mound for his 13th start of the 2026 season against Seattle’s Emerson Hancock (3.47 ERA). Hancock has struggled a bit over his last three starts, allowing six runs in a loss to Washington and five runs in a loss to Boston.

Seattle has dropped his last three outings, but the Mariners are favored at home in this series finale.

Let’s jump right into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for the deciding game in this three-game set.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Blue Jays +1.5 (-198)
Mariners -1.5 (+162)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: +109
Mariners: -131

Total

7.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Trey Yesavage (4-3, 3.34 ERA)
Seattle: Emerson Hancock (5-4, 3.47 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners How to Watch

Date: Sunday, July 5
Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
Venue: T-Mobile Park
How to Watch (TV): NBCSN/Peacock, Sportsnet
Blue Jays record: 42-47
Mariners record: 46-44

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

Kazuma Okamoto to Hit a Home Run (+447)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – why I’m taking a shot on Okamoto to hit his 20th home run of the season:

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has been one of the few bright spots for the team on offense, homering 19 times while posting a .776 OPs in his first season in MLB.

Okamoto has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, homering 14 times, and he’s homered three times over the last two weeks, posting a .300 batting average in the process.

At +447, Okamoto is undervalued against the Seattle Mariners and right-hander Emerson Hancock, who has given up 12 home runs in 16 outings this season. Hancock has a solid 3.47 ERA, but he ranks in the 45th percentile in ground-ball rate and the 21st percentile or worse in barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity against.

I don’t mind a small bet on Okamoto at this long shot price.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Both Hancock and Yesavage have impressive ERAs in the 2026 season, but the Blue Jays’ right-hander has a much better advanced profile.

Yesavage ranks in the 80th percentile in expected ERA and the 91st percentile in expected batting average against while Hancock is in the 36th and 32nd percentile in those two categories. After a really strong start to the season, Hancock saw his actual ERA go from 2.78 at the end of May to 3.47 after two rough outings near the end of June.

Can he bounce back in this one?

While we may not see a five-run showing from Hancock, I do think he’s the pitcher to fade in this matchup. Yesavage has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 12 starts, and the Jays are .500 team when he’s on the mound despite being five games under .500 for the season.

Toronto’s offense has been a major issue in 2026, ranking 22nd in Weighted Runs Created Plus, but the Mariners aren’t much better, clocking in at 14th. I’ll take the Jays as dogs in this series finale since they should have an advantage on the mound.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+109 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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