Blue Jays vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, July 12

The Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres are both under .500 heading into their final game before the 2026 All-Star break on Sunday afternoon.

After splitting the first two games of this series, the Jays are 45-50 through 95 games while San Diego is 47-48 and now in third place in the NL West division.

Toronto made the World Series in 2025, but it seems like a long shot to get back there with under 70 games left in the regular season, as it is in fourth place in the AL East, 12 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays.

On Sunday, the Jays have right-hander Kevin Gausman (4.32 ERA) on the mound against Padres righty German Marquez (5.02 ERA). Marquez is making just his ninth appearance of the 2026 season after missing time with a right forearm injury.

Oddsmakers have the Jays set as favorites in this series finale, but they are four games under .500 on the road in 2026.

Let’s examine the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as both of these teams look to head into the All-Star break on a high note.

Blue Jays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Blue Jays -1.5 (+125)
Padres +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: -131
Padres: +108

Total

8.5 (Over -120/Under -101)

Blue Jays vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.32 ERA)
San Diego: German Marquez (4-2, 5.02 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Sunday, July 12
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): Padres.TV, TVA, Sportsnet
Blue Jays record: 45-50
Padres record: 47-48

Blue Jays vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+413)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – that Springer has some positive numbers against Marquez in his career:

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer has been limited to just 66 games (64 starts) this season due to injury, and he’s hitting just .218 with nine home runs.

However, Springer has an intriguing matchup on Sunday afternoon against the San Diego Padres and right-hander German Marquez, who has given up eight home runs in eight appearances this season.

Marquez enters this start with a 5.02 ERA, and he’s struggled against Springer in his career, allowing the veteran outfielder to go 4-for-9 against him. While Springer has yet to take Marquez deep, he’s hitting .240 with a home run in six games since returning to action.

I don’t mind this price for the Blue Jays star, especially since seven of his nine homers in 2026 have come against right-handed pitching.

Blue Jays vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

So far this season, the Padres are 18-11 on the run line as home underdogs, and they’re seven games over .500 when it comes to the run line (51-44) overall.

San Diego has struggled on offense (29th in Weighted Runs Created Plus) in the 2026 season, but it does have a decent pitching staff, ranking 16th in overall ERA and sixth in bullpen ERA.

Marquez returned to the rotation on July 7 and promptly threw five innings of one-run (none earned) ball for the Padres, leading them to a win over Arizona. While there isn’t a lot to take away from his season, Marquez has led the Padres to a 5-2 record in seven starts.

Meanwhile, the Jays are just 8-11 when Gausman is on the mound, and he’s seen his ERA jump from 3.13 to 4.32 since the start of June.

Toronto is already under .500 on the road, and it hasn’t been all that better than the Padres on offense, ranking 24th in wRC+.

I lean with the Padres to at least cover the run line in this game, especially since they’ve been a better team at home (26-24) than on the road in 2026.

Pick: Padres +1.5 (-150 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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