Chiefs vs. Raiders Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can Kansas City Cover On Road?)

It’s a battle of undefeated teams as the Las Vegas Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.

The Raiders were favored in their season opener against the Dolphins before upsetting the Chargers and Saints on the road in their last two contests.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs had two rather easy wins in Weeks 1 and 3, but needed overtime and some questionable decisions by the Colts for a 33-30 overtime victory in Week 2.

The Raiders ended a three-game losing streak to the Chiefs with a 14-12 win in a meaningless Week 18 game last season.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 4 matchup with a final score prediction.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Chiefs -4.5 (-112)
Raiders +4.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Chiefs: -225
Raiders: +185

Total

47.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Line Movement: The spread has come down a point since the odds opened for this game, with the Chiefs now -4.5 after opening as -5.5 favorites. The total has also moved, going up from 45.5 to 47.5.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his Road to 272 Bets column, in which he picks each game every week:

The Raiders' defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL to start the year, ranking second in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate. They've also allowed just 5.2 yards per snap.

The Kansas City defense has also been elite, ranking third in opponent yards per play (4.7), while also ranking sixth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

I understand this is a game that Patrick Mahomes will be playing in, but other than that, I'm surprised by the total of 47.5. Both defenses have been top-10 units, so I expect this total to go UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 47.5 (-106) via Caesars

It is a bit curious that the total increased by two points, given how good both of these defenses have been, as noted by MacMillan.

Kenneth Walker III has given the Chiefs a weapon in the backfield, helping them score 88 points through three games. However, Kansas City has allowed the third-fewest points in the league at 16.7 per game, with the Raiders not far behind at 18.0 per game.

The Chiefs probably win this game because they’re the Chiefs, but it’s going to be a close one.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Raiders 20

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