College Football ATS Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 6 (Notre Dame Will Run Away With Win vs. Stanford)

Week 6 of the college football season is here, and we have plenty of matchups involving ranked teams, including a handful of games between two teams that are currently inside the top 25 of the latest AP Poll.

If you only care about winners, check out my straight-up picks article where I predict the winner of every game involving a ranked team. In this article, I'm going to take things one step further and predict which side will cover the spread. Let's dive into them.

College Football Week 6 Spread Picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

No. 20 Iowa vs. Washington Spread Pick

Pick: Iowa +3.5 (-117)

Iowa State vs. No. 8 BYU Spread Pick

Pick: BYU -10.5 (-105)

No. 7 Indiana vs. Nebraska Spread Pick

Pick: Nebraska +7.5 (-113)

North Carolina vs. No. 25 Pittsburgh Spread Pick

Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-112)

UCF vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State Spread Pick

Pick: Oklahoma State -10.5 (-112)

Texas A&M vs. No. 14 Missouri Spread Pick

It's time to put some respect on the Missouri Tigers. Not only did they pull off a huge win against Florida last week, but this team is now 12th in the country in adjusted EPA per play and 33rd in net success rate. Now, they get to face a Texas A&M team that has not lived up to preseason expectations, ranking just 43rd in adjusted EPA per play and 109th in net yards per play at -1.10.

The Aggies have struggled to throw the ball this season, but have found some level of success on the ground. Unfortunately for them, that's exactly the strength of the Tigers' defense, ranking 30th in opponent EPA per rush.

I don't foresee this being a letdown spot for Missouri. I'll back the Tigers to win and cover the spread as home favorites.

Pick: Missouri -3.5 (-108)

South Carolina vs. No. 16 Florida Spread Pick

Pick: Florida -11.5 (-113)

No. 9 Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Spread Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt +10 (-114)

No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma Spread Pick

These have been two of the best defenses in the country to begin the season. They are first and third in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, and first and 11th in opponent success rate.

Meanwhile, both teams rank outside the top 40 in virtually every single offensive metric, and Oklahoma is barely inside the top 100 in a lot of areas, including ranking just 91st in college football in adjusted EPA per play. If this game ends up being a defensive affair, which I think it will be, I'll bet on the side that's getting more than a touchdown worth of points.

Pick: Oklahoma +7.5 (-107)

No. 22 Houston vs. Kansas State Spread Pick

Pick: Houston +2.5 (-110)

No. 21 UCLA vs. No. 13 Oregon Spread Pick

Pick: UCLA +11.5 (-113)

Stanford vs. No. 3 Notre Dame Spread Pick

Notre Dame might not has played against elite competition thus far, but the Fighting Irish rank first in the country in net adjusted EPA per play, which takes into consideration strength of competition. They're also second behind only Alabama in net success rate.

Meanwhile, Stanford is one of the worst power conference teams in the nation, ranking 122nd in net success rate. The Fighting Irish is going to run away with the win in this game.

Pick: Notre Dame -38 (-112)

Maryland vs. No. 5 Ohio State Spread Pick

Ohio State is going to be able to win this game by whatever margin the Buckeyes want. Maryland is one of the worst power conference teams in the country this season, currently ranking 100th in adjusted EPA per play and 87th in net success rate at -3.1%. By comparison, the Buckeyes are fifth and sixth in those two metrics.

To have any hope of hanging with Ohio State, a defense is going to have to find a way to slow down Jeremiah Smith, Julian Sayin, and the Ohio State pass attack. Unfortunately, the Terps rank 77th in opponent EPA per pass and 72nd in opponent pass success rate. That's bad news for the road team.

I'll lay the points with Ohio State.

Pick: Ohio State -34.5 (-115)

No. 15 Tennessee vs. Arkansas Spread Pick

Pick: Tennessee -13.5 (-113)

No. 10 LSU vs. Kentucky Spread Pick

Pick: LSU -8.5 (-113)

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 6 Alabama Spread Pick

Pick: Alabama -1.5 (-106)

No. 19 USC vs. Penn State Spread Pick

Pick: USC +1.5 (-112)

Kansas vs. No. 12 Utah Spread Pick

Pick: Utah -15.5 (-108)

No. 23 Boise State vs. Fresno State Spread Pick

Both of these teams are 4-1, but only one is a legitimately good team. Boise State is 18th in college football in both adjusted EPA per play and net success rate. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 79th and 74th in those two metrics. The Bulldogs have benefited from a weaker schedule, as their box scores show. They lost 39-0 to the Trojans in Week 1, then beat San Jose State by just 16 points and Rice by only 14 points.

Meanwhile, the Broncos were on the cusp of beating the Ducks in the opening week and have since posted impressive wins, including a 32-7 victory over Western Michigan.

I'm prepared to lay the points on Boise State as long as the spread stays below the magic number of seven.

Pick: Boise State -6.5 (-112)

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Find Iain's bets, where he placed them, and how to tail them on Juice Reel.

Use our exclusive Caesars Sportsbook promo code ‘SICZRDYW’ to Bet $1 and get a 100% profit boost on your next 10 bets. Sign up and make your first wager with the online sportsbook. Up to $25 max bet per boost.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google