Colts vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

The Commanders are underdogs against the Colts in Week 4 of the NFL season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We have already been treated to two International Series games this NFL season, but Week 4 will give us the first London game of the 2026 campaign, which means we have morning NFL to watch and bet on Sunday.

The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders will face each other at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a battle between two 1-2 squads. The Colts got their first win of the season in Week 3, beating the Houston Texans 19-17. The Commanders also got their first win of the season in Week 3, upsetting the Seattle Seahawks 33-31.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for Sunday morning's matchup.

Colts vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Colts -3 (-118)
• Commanders +3 (-102)

Moneyline

• Colts -175
• Commanders +140

Total

• OVER 47 (-108)
• UNDER 47 (-110)

Colts vs. Commanders How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, October 4
• Time: 9:30 ET
• Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): NFL Network
• Colts record: 1-2
• Commanders record: 1-2

Colts vs. Commanders Betting Trends

• The Colts are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams
• The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams
• The Commanders are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games
• The OVER is 8-2 in the Commanders' last 10 games

Colts vs. Commanders Key Player to Watch

• Jonathan Taylor, RB - Indianapolis Colts

We all know by now that the key to beating the Colts is slowing down Jonathan Taylor, which is partially why the Colts are 1-2 to begin the season. JT has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry so far this season. He has scored four touchdowns and has added nine receptions for 67 yards through the air, but for the Colts to be at their best, they need Taylor to improve his efficiency on the ground.

Colts vs. Commanders Prediction and Best Bet

The Commanders likely won't have Jayden Daniels back at quarterback, but Marcus Mariota showed this past week that he's more than just a capable backup. What makes me really like the Commanders in this spot is that their defense has done a great job stopping the run this season. They have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry while ranking third in opponent rush EPA and sixth in opponent rush success rate.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense has been horrific to begin the season, ranking 28th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. Indianapolis isn't good enough offensively to overcome a bottom-five defense, so I'm going to take the field-goal-worth of points with the Commanders.

Pick: Commanders +3 (-102) via BetMGM

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