Cubs vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for NL Wild Card Game 2

The San Diego Padres jumped all over the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Round, as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both went deep in the first inning to set the tone in an 8-0 win.

The Padres have been red hot for quite some time now, going from out of the playoffs to the No. 1 seed in the NL wild card by the end of the regular season. They’re favored at home in Game 2 with Nick Pivetta (2.86 ERA) on the mound for the ninth time this season.

After missing a big chunk of the year due to injury, Pivetta returned to the rotation in September, posting a 1.45 ERA across four starts. The Padres won all four of those outings.

He’ll take on Chicago’s Kevin Gausman (4.51 ERA), who posted a 4.83 ERA in nine outings with the Cubbies after he was acquired in a deadline deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Gausman pitched for Toronto in the 2025 World Series, so he’s certainly been battle-tested in the playoffs.

The Cubs are looking to force a winner-take-all Game 3 on Thursday, but they need their offense to step up after it mustered just three hits in the shutout loss to open this series.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Game 2 of this NL wild card matchup.

Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Cubs +1.5 (-198)
Padres -1.5 (+162)

Moneyline

Cubs: +113
Padres: -137

Total

7 (Over -125/Under +104)

Cubs vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Cubs: Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.51 ERA)
Padres: Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA)

Cubs vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): Peacock, NBCSN
Series: San Diego leads 1-0

Cubs vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+319)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – why I’m taking the NL MVP favorite in this matchup:

Pete Crow-Armstrong had a rough Game 1 against the San Diego Padres, and he’s looking to right the ship against Nick Pivetta, who has given up just two home runs in eight outings this season.

PCA is actually 1-for-3 against Pivetta in his career, and the NL MVP frontrunner hit 45 home runs in the regular season, including 34 against right-handed pitching. The Cubs star had a .973 OPS against righties, and I’m betting on a bounce-back showing in this Game 3 matchup.

After all, PCA closed the regular season on a high note, hitting .288 with four home runs and a .977 OPS over the final two weeks. He’s worth a look with Chicago’s season on the line.

Cubs vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

There’s one interesting trend that I can’t look past with this current wild card format, and it helped inform some of my bets for today’s slate:

Since MLB introduced this new three-game format in the wild card round, the team that wins Game 1 is 15-1 all-time when it comes to winning the series. The 2025 New York Yankees are the only team that lost Game 1 and ended up advancing.

So, I think that bodes well for the Padres, who have the advantage on the mound in Game 2.

Pivetta has only made four appearances since coming off the injured list, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in all of them and has an expected ERA of 3.20 this season.

Meanwhile, Gausman has an expected ERA of 4.03, and the veteran right-hander has struggled since he was traded to Chicago. Gausman allowed five or more runs in three of his nine regular-season starts with the Cubs, and he lost a start with Toronto against this San Diego team, allowing three runs in six innings.

The Padres’ offense was by far the better unit in Game 1, and they were an impressive 21 games over .500 at home in the regular season.

San Diego has been on fire for over a month, and I trust this pitching staff (which had a top-five bullpen ERA in the regular season) more than the Cubs.

I’ll bet on San Diego to wrap this series up in Game 2.

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-137 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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