Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, July 9

The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are battling for second place in the NL West at this point in the 2026 season, as both well behind the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

San Diego has gotten the better of Arizona in this series, winning the first two games, and it’s favored to complete the sweep on Thursday night.

However, neither team has a promising starting pitcher on the mound.

Arizona righty Merrill Kelly (5.71 ERA) is looking to turn around an awful start to 2026 while the Padres have Griffin Canning (6.71 ERA) on the bump for the 13th time this season. Canning has led the Padres to a 4-8 record in his 12 appearances.

I’m eyeing a player prop and a total for this NL West showdown, as both of these teams look to make up some ground in the NL wild card race.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185)
Padres -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

Diamondbacks: +110
Padres: -132

Total

9 (Over +101/Under -122)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Merrill Kelly (6-8. 5.71 ERA)
San Diego: Griffin Canning (1-6, 6.71 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 9
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): DBACKS.TV/Padres.TV
Diamondbacks record: 45-47
Padres record: 46-46

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+337)

In today’s best home run props column for SI Betting, I broke down why Tatis is a worthwhile bet to go deep, even though he has just five homers in 2026:

Fernando Tatis Jr. is my favorite bet to go deep on Thursday, even though he only has five home runs in the 2026 season.

The San Diego Padres star is still hitting .284 this season, so while the power isn’t there, he’s still made a decent impact at the dish.

Tatis Jr. has dominated Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly in his career, going 11-for-31 with four home runs, good for a .355 batting average and a 1.186 OPS.

Kelly has really struggled in 2026, allowing 19 home runs in 15 outings while posting a 5.71 ERA. He’s one of the easiest pitchers to fade on Thursday, and Tatis’ positive history against him makes him a no-brainer bet.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Diamondbacks and Padres are the two best teams at hitting the UNDER in the 2026 season, but I’m going to fade that trend in this series finale.

These teams combined for 14 runs on Wednesday, and now they have two struggling pitchers on the bump tonight.

Kelly ranks in the first percentile in MLB in expected ERA (7.78) and expected batting average against (.311), allowing five or more runs in 40 percent of his starts in 2026.

Canning hasn’t been that much better, ranking in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA while allowing three or more runs in seven of his 12 outings.

These offenses are both in the bottom three in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus, but I can’t trust either of these starters to get through this game without allowing a few runs.

After an offensive explosion on Wednesday, I think the OVER – at plus money – is a worthwhile bet tonight.

Pick: OVER 9 (+101 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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