Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle Schwarber Highlight Top Predictions)

A 13-game MLB slate on Thursday should produce plenty of home runs, so why don’t we bet on a few players to go deep?

Every day, the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run props, a fun way to bet on MLB and potentially hit a long shot bet. These plays aren’t easy to hit, but this week has been one of the best of the season.

Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong homered two times on Wednesday night, cashing a home run prop from this column for the third day in a row.

I’m looking to stay hot during Thursday’s shortened slate that includes six games that have a first pitch scheduled before 3 p.m. EST.

Here’s a breakdown of three home run plays for Thursday night, including a pick for San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr., who is facing a pitcher that he’s fared extremely well against in his MLB career.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, July 9

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Chase DeLauter to Hit a Home Run (+447)

Cleveland Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter has put together a strong 2026 season, hitting .279 with eight home runs and a .774 OPS.

While the home run number isn’t huge, DeLauter has been on fire since returning from the injured list. In 12 games since coming back into the lineup, DeLauter is hitting .404 with one homer and an OPS north of 1.000.

Now, he takes on a home-run prone pitcher in Minnesota’s Bailey Ober, who has given up 12 home runs in as many appearances this season, posting a 4.59 ERA in the process. Ober is making his first start since May 30 after dealing with elbow inflammation.

Last season, Ober allowed 30 home runs in 27 starts, so the Guardians are in a solid spot to at least hit one long ball in this matinee matchup. I love this price for DeLauter, who is clearly seeing the ball well since returning to action.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+142)

Philadelphia Phillies star Kyle Schwarber has homered in back-to-back games against the Cincinnati Reds, and he has an insane 32 home runs in the 2026 campaign.

Schwarber has gone deep eight times over the last four weeks (24 games), hitting .299 with a .979 OPS during that stretch. He’s a threat to leave the yard every night, which is why his prop is all the way down at +142 on Thursday.

Still, I think Schwarber is worth targeting against a Cincinnati Reds team that has allowed 124 home runs in the 2026 campaign – the sixth-most in MLB. Brady Singer (5.03 ERA) gets the start for the Reds tonight, and he’s allowed 20 home runs in his 17 starts.

Schwarber hasn’t gone deep against Singer in his career, but he does have a pair of extra-base hits.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+337)

Fernando Tatis Jr. is my favorite bet to go deep on Thursday, even though he only has five home runs in the 2026 season.

The San Diego Padres star is still hitting .284 this season, so while the power isn’t there, he’s still made a decent impact at the dish.

Tatis Jr. has dominated Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly in his career, going 11-for-31 with four home runs, good for a .355 batting average and a 1.186 OPS.

Kelly has really struggled in 2026, allowing 19 home runs in 15 outings while posting a 5.71 ERA. He’s one of the easiest pitchers to fade on Thursday, and Tatis’ positive history against him makes him a no-brainer bet.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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