Falcons vs. Packers Score Prediction for NFL Week 3 (Can Atlanta Cover With Penix Back?)

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers avoided an 0-2 start to the 2026 campaign, knocking off the New York Jets in overtime in Week 2.

The Pack have been short-handed to begin the season with Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs sidelined, and it’s led to them struggling a bit against Minnesota and New York. The Packers are in the bottom-10 in EPA/Play on offense, but their defense stepped up in a big way in the second half to complete a comeback against the Jets.

Now, they’re looking to get back over .500 in their home opener against the winless Atlanta Falcons.

The 2026 season has gotten off to a nightmarish start for the Falcons, as they have the worst offense in the NFL (32nd in EPA/Play) and have used Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at quarterback.

Michael Penix Jr. (ACL recovery) and Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) have missed the first two weeks, but Penix is set to return and start in Week 3. That has swung the spread towards Atlanta a bit, but the Packers are still heavily favored in their home opener.

All season long, the SI Betting team will be providing score predictions for the NFL slate as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread, total and moneyline bets.

When it comes to this primetime matchup, I’m eyeing the Packers to come out on top, but will they cover?

Before we get into this week’s score prediction for Thursday, let’s take a look at the latest odds for Falcons vs. Packers in Week 3.

Falcons vs. Packers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Falcons +5.5 (-112)
Packers -6 (-108)

Moneyline

Falcons: +215
Packers: -265

Total

43.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

The Falcons opened as seven-point underdogs in this matchup, but the move to start Penix has shifted this line a full point towards Atlanta.

The Packers have struggled against the spread to open this season, and Atlanta does have a lot of great skill players if Penix is able to get them ball better than Rush and Strand did in the first two weeks.

Falcons vs. Packers Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week:

The Falcons have announced that Michael Penix Jr. will be making his first start of the season on Thursday night, saving football fans from having to watch Cooper Rush on prime-time football and potentially saving the Falcons' season.

We need to throw the Falcons' first two offensive performances of the season out the window. Their quarterback play wasn't just bad; it kept them from being able to do anything through the air, and when they tried, they turned the ball over. What we can look at is their defense, which ranks ninth in Opponent EPA per Play and fourth in Opponent Success Rate so far, despite the injuries they're battling.

Meanwhile, the Packers may not be as good as I thought they'd be heading into the season. Their defense has been average, and their offense ranks 28th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate, which is even worse than the Falcons' offense, which ranks 31st.

This line has come down quite a bit with Penix set to play for the Falcons, and I think it’s very reasonable to expect this offense to take a step forward with the former first-round pick at quarterback.

Green Bay should be favored in this home opener, but as MacMillan mentioned, the Packers offense has struggled to open the 2026 season. I’ll bet on a lower-scoring game with the Packers pulling out a close win.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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