Falcons vs. Saints Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Bet on Atlanta to Pull Off an Upset)

Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season wraps up with an NFC South battle on Monday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints.

Both these teams enter this game at 1-2, but they're battling to have the best record in a division that has been pedestrian at best over the last several seasons.

The Falcons started the season 0-2, but they're coming off a commanding win on the road against the Green Bay Packers with Michael Penix Jr. back in the lineup.

Penix's return clearly makes this offense more dangerous, and Bijan Robinson and Drake London are two of the best weapons in football.

Meanwhile, the Saints have gotten off to a great start on offense with Tyler Shough pushing his way into the back end of the MVP conversation. However, New Orleans blew a game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3, and even though it's favored to win the NFC South, that's far from a guarantee in the 2026 season.

Oddsmakers have set the Saints as favorites at home in this matchup, but the Falcons are more than capable of pulling off an upset, which they showed us in Week 3.

All season long, the SI Betting team is using the latest odds and analysis to predict the final score of games, a fun way to help bettors decide on spread, total and moneyline wagers.

Here’s a breakdown of this NFC South showdown, with both teams looking to get back to .500 through four weeks.

Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Falcons +2.5 (-102)
Saints -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Falcons: +124
Saints: -148

Total

47.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

The Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites in this matchup, but this line has bounced back and forth between 2.5 and 3.5 in the lead up to Monday night, settling at 2.5.

The total is up to 47.5, as the Falcons offense has seen a major boost with Penix back in action.

Falcons vs. Saints Score Prediction

Each week, SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan shares his favorite pick for every NFL game in his Road to 272 column. He’s targeting the Falcons as one of his favorite upset picks:

I think we all saw just how different this Falcons team is with a competent quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. had a slow start against the Packers, but once he found his footing, the Falcons' offense looked elite, led by the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London.

Let's also give credit to the Falcons' defense, which is eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. If their offense can continue to improve and their defense can keep this level of play going, they're going to be a dangerous team.

I think I'm settling on the Saints being an average team. They're in the middle of the pack in both metrics, including ranking 15th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play.

I'm willing to bet by the final whistle on Monday night, the NFC South will go through Atlanta.

MacMillan and I are on the same page in this matchup, as the Falcons are one of my favorite underdog bets of the week.

The Atlanta defense has quietly been one of the best units in the league, ranking in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, success rate and EPA/Play. If Penix can just get the ball to Robinson and Drake London like he did in Week 3, I think the Falcons may be the better team in this matchup.

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Saints 24

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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