Fever vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Sunday, July 5

Two WNBA Finals contenders are set to square off on Sunday night in Las Vegas, but both teams are down their best player.

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark (back) and Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson (right leg) have been ruled out for this game, taking some of the shine away from this matchup.

Still, there are a ton of great players to watch – including guard Kelsey Mitchell and Jackie Young – and oddsmakers are expecting a close game, as the Aces are favored by just 3.5 points at home.

Las Vegas is coming off an overtime win against the Chicago Sky, but it’s just 1-1 since Wilson went down with this leg injury. Meanwhile, the Fever are 2-0 without Clark this season, beating the Los Angeles Sparks by 27 points without her on June 27.

These are the No. 1 (Las Vegas) and No. 2 (Indiana) offenses in the league, so we should still see some fireworks on that end of the floor.

After a long layoff, the Fever are looking to remain hot as they set their sights on the top spot in the Eastern Conference.

Let’s check out the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Fever vs. Aces in a standalone game on Sunday night.

Fever vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Fever +3.5 (-112)
Aces -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Fever: +145
Aces: -175

Total

181.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Fever vs. Aces How to Watch

Date: Sunday, July 5
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN, Disney+
Fever record: 11-8
Aces record: 15-5

Fever vs. Aces Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

Caitlin Clark – out

Aces Injury Report

Janiah Barker – out
Dana Evans – out
A’ja Wilson – out

Fever vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bets

Fever Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 23.5 Points (-116)

Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell is one of the best scorers in the WNBA, and she had a massive 2025 season with Clark (groin) missing most of the campaign.

Now, she’ll handle the No. 1 duties on Sunday against an Aces team that is just eighth in the league in defensive rating and ninth in opponent points per game.

Mitchell has 22 or more points in five of her last six games, including a 26-point showing on June 27 with Clark out of the lineup. She had 21 points in the only other game Clark has missed in 2026, and Mitchell is averaging 21.6 points per game overall.

She should handle a few more touches on Sunday, and the star guard has been ultra-efficient this season, knocking down 49.5 percent of her shots from the floor and 40.2 percent of her 3-pointers.

I’m buying her in this matchup, especially since the Aces won’t have Wilson protecting the rim.

Fever vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I think the Fever can cover on the road, even with Clark sidelined:

The Aces are 1-1 since Wilson went down, losing in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game to the New York Liberty before beating the Chicago Sky in overtime on Friday.

The fact that the Aces needed overtime to beat the Sky is a little concerning since Chicago ranks 10th in the league in net rating, 11th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating so far this season. The Las Vegas defense (eighth in defensive rating) is clearly worse without Wilson on the floor, which is a concern against a high-octane Fever attack.

Indiana is 2-0 this season with Clark out of the lineup, and star guard Kelsey Mitchell is more than capable of carrying this team to a win on Sunday night. While I’m not going to bet on an upset, I do think there is value in taking the Fever to cover as road underdogs.

Las Vegas is just 4-5 against the spread at home in the 2026 season, and while these are the two-best offenses in the league, losing Wilson is a huge downgrade for the Aces, as she’s averaging over 25 points per game.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Fever are able to hang around in this game, especially since they’ve fared pretty well without Clark over the last two seasons. After all, Indy made the WNBA semifinals in the 2025 season with the star guard playing just 13 games.

Pick: Fever +3.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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