Fever vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, July 9

The Indiana Fever are looking to salvage the back end of a back-to-back on Thursday, July 9 after they dropped Wednesday’s game against the Los Angeles Sparks by double digits.

Now, Indiana is set as a road underdog against the Phoenix Mercury, who had their winning streak snapped by the Chicago Sky on Tuesday night. Phoenix split two games against Indiana in late June (both in Indy), but it is six games under .500 so far this season.

The Fever dropped to the No. 7 seed in the standings with Wednesday’s loss, and they are not expected to have Caitlin Clark (back) in action on Thursday after she returned to the lineup on Wednesday night.

Fever guard Caitlin Clark will be OUT for tomorrow's game against the Mercury, per Stephanie White. pic.twitter.com/64yokqPl9q
— PHNX Mercury (@PHNX_Mercury) July 8, 2026

On the bright side, star center Aliyah Boston is expected to play after sitting out Wednesday’s loss.

Can the Fever pull off an upset win without their All-Star guard?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop top bet and my prediction for Thursday’s contest.

Fever vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Fever +1.5 (-118)
Mercury -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Fever: -108
Mercury: -112

Total

174.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Fever vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 9
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Fever record: 12-9
Mercury record: 8-14

Fever vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

Not submitted yet

(Cailtin Clark is not expected to play on the second night of a back-to-back due to her back injury).

Mercury Injury Report

Natasha Mack – out
Alyssa Thomas – probable
Sami Whitcomb – probable

Fever vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Fever Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-159)

Kelsey Mitchell’s impressive season from beyond the 3-point line continued on Wednesday night, as she was 5-for-9 from deep and scored 29 points in a loss to the Sparks.

Now, Mitchell is shooting 40.7 percent from 3 in the 2026 season, and she’s attempted nine or more 3-pointers in four of her last five games.

The star guard was 3-for-10 and 7-for-9 from beyond the arc in two meetings with Phoenix late last month, yet oddsmakers still have her at -159 to hit three or more shots from deep on Thursday.

The Mercury rank last in the WNBA in opponent 3-pointers allowed per game (9.9), and they are 14th in opponent 3-point percentage. With Clark out, Mitchell should have a massive role in the Indiana offense on Thursday, so I love taking her at this number against one of the weaker defenses in the league.

Fever vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Even with Clark out of the lineup on Thursday, I expect this to be a high-scoring game, as the Fever lead the league in points per game (93.4) this season.

Indiana is 3-0 when Clark is out of the lineup in the 2026 season, and the team has the No. 2 offensive rating in the league. The Mercury aren’t nearly as good on offense, but they rank 11th in the W in defensive rating and allowed 109 points to Indiana in their last meeting.

The two games between these teams finished with 163 combined points (a Fever win at home) and 220 combined points (a Fever loss at home).

One interesting trend from early in the 2026 season is that the OVER has hit in seven of the 10 home games that Phoenix has played – the best mark in the WNBA. Since Indy (eighth in defensive rating) is playing a tough back-to-back after allowing over 100 points on Wednesday, I wouldn’t be shocked if this game turns into a track meet.

The Fever have cleared 174.5 combined points in seven of their last 10 games.

Pick: OVER 174.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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