Fire vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, July 16

The Portland Fire and Washington Mystics played one of the best games of the 2026 season back on June 28, going to four overtimes in a one-point Washington win.

Now, they are set to face off for the second time in 2026 on Thursday night.

Washington is set as a favorite at home, and it has played really well as of late to get over .500. The Mystics are 7-3 in their last 10 games, posting the sixth-best net rating in the league during that stretch. On top of that, they Mystics are now third in the league in defensive rating this season.

Washington’s young core is one of the most exciting groups in the W, and it should be able to handle a Portland team that is just 4-8 on the road this season. After a fast start to the 2026 campaign, the Fire have fallen out of a playoff spot in the W with the All-Star break just over a week away.

Let’s examine the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday night’s contest.

Fire vs. Mystics Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Fire +5.5 (-112)
Mystics -5.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Fire: +170
Mystics: -205

Total

163.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Fire vs. Mystics How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 16
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: CareFirst Arena
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV, MNMT, Fox 12 Plus
Fire record: 10-14
Mystics record: 12-10

Fire vs. Mystics Injury Reports

Fire Injury Report

Teja Oblak – questionable
Sania Feagin – out
Megan Gustafson – out

Mystics Injury Report

None to report

Fire vs. Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kiki Iriafen 10+ Rebounds (-160)

Washington Mystics forward Kiki Iriafen has been one of the best rebounders in the league this season, averaging 9.7 boards per game.

She’s recorded double-digit rebounds in six of her last seven games, including the four-overtime thriller against Portland.

The former first-round pick began the season with four games in a row with double-digit boards, but she cooled off during the month of June before picking things back up in the final week of the month. She has 27 boards over her last two games, and the Fire are a pretty favorable matchup for Washington on the glass.

Portland comes into this game in the bottom five in the league in both rebound percentage and opponent rebounds per game.

Fire vs. Mystics Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Mystics are worth a bet to cover at home:

It may have taken four overtimes to decide a game between these teams in late June, but I think Washington is by far the better squad entering Thursday’s contest.

Not only are the Mystics 7-3 in their last 10 games, but they rank sixth in the WNBA in net rating and first in defensive rating over that stretch. Washington has survived despite posting the worst offensive rating in the league over its last 10 contests.

I don’t expect a poor offensive showing on Thursday, as the Fire are dead last in the WNBA in both defensive rating and net rating (minus-9.2) over their last 10. For the entire season, Portland ranks last in the league in defensive rating, which has made it hard to trust as an underdog.

The Fire are just 5-7 against the spread on the road this season, and they just lost a road game to the Connecticut Sun, who have the worst record in the WNBA.

I’m buying Washington to keep up this hot stretch on Thursday night.

Pick: Mystics -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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