Giants vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, June 29

The Arizona Diamondbacks dropped three straight games over the weekend to fall back under .500 this season, and they’ll look to turn things around at home against their division rival – the San Francisco Giants – on Monday night.

The Giants are 13 games under .500 in the 2026 season, and they’ve struggled mightily on the road (17-26). They did take two of three games from the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves over the weekend (at home), but can they keep that going against the D-Backs?

Oddsmakers don’t see it, as Arizona is favored in this series opener with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound. The D-Backs are 12-4 in E-Rod’s 16 starts this season, but he does have some shaky advanced numbers.

The Giants will counter with right-hander Tyler Mahle (5.49 ERA), who returned to the rotation after missing time with a hamstring injury. He tossed 5.2 innings of scoreless ball in his first June start, lowering his ERA from 6.04 to 5.49 in the process.

Can Mahle duplicate that showing on the road against a divisional rival?

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this NL West battle on Monday night.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Giants +1.5 (-175)
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+144)

Moneyline

Giants: +113
Diamondbacks: -136

Total

9 (Over +101/Under -122)

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

San Francisco: Tyler Mahle (1-7, 5.49 ERA)
Arizona: Eduardo Rodriguez (6-2, 2.27 ERA)

Giants vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

Date: Monday, June 29
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Field
How to Watch (TV): DBACKS.TV/ NBC Sports Bay Area
Giants record: 35-48
Diamondbacks record: 41-42

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bets

Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bet

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+344)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column why I think Marte is a great bet to hit a fourth home run in his last five games:

Marte is by far my favorite home run target on Monday, and a lot of that has to do with his previous success against Giants right-hander Tyler Mahle.

In his career against Mahle, Marte is hitting .533 (8-for-15) with a 1.696 OPS. He’s picked up five extra-base hits against the Giants right-hander, including a pair of home runs. On top of that, Marte has been red hot as of late, hitting .304 with four home runs over the last two weeks.

Mahle has struggled in the 2026 season, posting a 5.49 ERA across 12 starts. He didn’t allow a run in his first June start last week, but he’s still given up 11 home runs in 2026.

This is a pretty favorable price for Marte, who has homered in three of his last four games.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

This is a really interesting pitching matchup, even though Rodriguez’s ERA (2.27) makes it seem like he’s the far better starter.

The advanced numbers for the D-Backs’ lefty are concerning, as he ranks in the 22nd percentile in expected ERA, the 23rd percentile in expected batting average against and just the ninth percentile in whiff percentage.

E-Rod has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.06 in 2026, a sign that he could be due for some regression as the season goes along.

His numbers are fairly similar to Mahle when it comes to advanced starts, as the Giants righty is in the 38th percentile in both expected ERA and expected BAA while posting a FIP of 4.69.

Neither of these offenses has been all that impressive in 2026, as they both enter this game in the bottom 10 in runs scored (San Francisco is 27th) even though the Giants are 13th in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

The one thing that I can’t look past is the home and road splits for these teams. Arizona is seven games over .500 at home so far this season, and it has won six of E-Rod’s eight outings at Chase Field. Meanwhile, the Giants are nine games under .500 on the road, and they’ve gone just 4-8 when Mahle takes the mound.

I’ll take Arizona to win this series opener, though both of these teams fell like long shots to make the playoffs in the National League at this point in the season.

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-136 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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