Jaguars vs. Bengals Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can Jacksonville Get Road Upset?)

The Cincinnati Bengals are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

After beating the Buccaneers and Texans to open the season, the Bengals couldn't hold on in a 30-27 loss to the Steelers last week.

On the other hand, the Jaguars got back on track with a big 35-6 win over the Patriots last time out. They had lost 20-13 in Denver in Week 2 after opening the season with a 34-10 win against the Browns.

The Bengals beat the Jaguars 31-27 at home last September.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 4 matchup.

Jaguars vs. Bengals Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Jaguars +2.5 (-105)
Bengals -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Jaguars: +124
Bengals: -148

Total

51.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Line Movement: The spread hasn’t budged since the odds opened for this game, but the total has gone up from 49.5 to 51.5. The under is now favored, though, after a -110 on both sides at 49.5 at opening.

Jaguars vs. Bengals Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his Road to 272 Bets column, in which he picks each game every week:

I was high on the Jaguars heading into this season, and they have done nothing but impress, whereas the Bengals haven't lived up to my expectations through the first three weeks.

The Jaguars have been one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL through the first three weeks, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA per play. The Chiefs are the only other team in the league that ranks inside the top six in both metrics.

The Bengals are one step below the Jaguars, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play and 10th in defensive EPA per play. I also have some concerns about Joe Burrow, who has been good but not great so far this season, ranking 16th in adjusted EPA per play.

With the Bengals being 2.5-point home favorites, that tells me the betting market believes this would be a near coin flip at a neutral site. I disagree with that. By my evaluation, the Jaguars are the better team, so I'll back Jacksonville as the road underdog.

Pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-102) via DraftKings

I completely agree with MacMillan here, and think the Jaguars win outright.

Home-field advantage is really all the Bengals have going for them in this one. They let the Bucs back into the game in their only home game so far, though, with Jacksonville feeling the effects of Mile High Stadium in their lone road contest.

The Jags should be able to prove their worth in Cincinnati this week.

Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 33, Bengals 24

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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