Junior Caminero Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction (Don’t Sleep on Rays Star After 2025 Showing)

Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero is fourth in Major League Baseball in home runs this season, and he is back in the Home Run Derby for the second year in a row.

Last year, Caminero came in second place, losing to Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh despite hitting 15 home runs in the final round. Now, the Rays star is second in the odds to win the 2026 derby, behind only Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber.

There is one change for Caminero from last year’s appearance, which could impact how he performs in this event. The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby has a new format after several years of timed rounds, the event is reverting back to a finite number of swings: 20 in the first round, 15 in the second round and 15 in the final round.

It’s possible having derby experience helps Caminero operate in a more selective manner at this dish, and it’s worth noting that he’s tied for the fourth-longest homer (463 feet) in MLB this season. That extreme power should help him at Citizens Bank Park, which isn’t as favorable to right-handed hitters as it is to lefties in 2026.

Let’s take a look at Caminero’s odds across several markets and my prediction for him in tonight’s Home Run Derby.

Junior Caminero Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win: +425
To Make the Final: +200
Round 1 Total: 9.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
To Make the Semifinals: -160
To Have Longest Home Run: +300

Junior Caminero Home Run Derby Prediction

Citizens Bank Park is a perfect place for a Home Run Derby, as it ranks seventh in Baseball Savant’s Park Factor rating and No. 8 for home runs. The “average” park factor is 100, and Citizens Bank Park has a home run factor of 110 in the 2026 season, which means 10 percent more home runs were observed at Citizens Bank Park than the average MLB stadium.

So, it’s reasonable to expect Caminero to have a strong showing after he made the final in 2025. However, per Baseball Savant, right-handed hitters have a home run park factor of just 104 at Citizens Bank Park while lefties have one of 115.

So, there is a clear disadvantage for Caminero, Willson Contreras and Jordan Walker in this event, as the stadium dimensions are further down the left-field line and to left-center field than right field.

I don’t think this will impact Caminero as much as it will other plays, as he’s hit plenty of towering home runs in the 2026 season. The Rays star could be in play for the longest home run in his event, and he should be able to at least advance through the first round.

Experience can be key at the Home Run Derby, especially since each hitter is only getting 20 swings in the first round to prove themselves. I’d expect Caminero to settle in faster than most since he competed in this event in 2025.

It’s a chalky pick, but Caminero is one of the three players that I’m betting on to win Monday’s derby.

Pick: Caminero to Win (+425); Caminero Longest Home Run (+300)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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