Kyle Schwarber Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction (Phillies Star Favored to Win)

Philadelphia Phillies superstar Kyle Schwarber leads the league with 32 home runs in the 2026 season, and he enters Monday night’s Home Run Derby as the favorite to win it all at his home stadium – Citizens Bank Park.

This is the third Home Run Derby appearance for Schwarber in his career, and he’s made a final before, losing to his now-teammate Bryce Harper in the 2018 derby. Harper is also in this year’s field, and the two facing off in another final would be pretty awesome for the hometown crowd.

This year, the Home Run Derby has a new format after several years of timed rounds, the event is reverting back to a finite number of swings: 20 in the first round, 15 in the second round and 15 in the final round.

That could help a player like Schwarber, who has a ton of experience in this event and may be more selective with his swings. Plus, he’s known to hit towering home runs, registering a 460-foot bomb (the 10th-longest homer in the 2026 season) earlier this year.

Here’s a look at Schwarber’s odds to win the Home Run Derby in 2026, as well as my prediction for his performance.

Kyle Schwarber Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win: +310
To Make the Final: +140
Round 1 Total: 10.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
To Make the Semifinals: -210
To Have Longest Home Run: +350

Kyle Schwarber Home Run Derby Prediction

I previewed the entire field for the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby earlier on Monday, and Schwarber happens to be one of the players that I’m betting on to win this event.

There are several reasons to bet on the Phillies slugger, starting with his experience. Not only does Schwarber have multiple derby appearances under his belt, but he’s at his home ballpark, which inherently gives him an advantage. Not only does Schwarber take batting practice here more often than any player (other than Harper) in this field, but Citizens Bank Park is also built for left-handed bats.

It’s shorter down the right-field line (330 feet) than the left-field line (334 feet), and the right-center field area (369 feet) is slightly shorter than left-center field (374 feet).

Baseball Savant’s Park Factors also show that lefties have a slight advantage over right-handed hitters when it comes to homering in Philly this season.

Overall, Citizens Bank Park is a perfect place for a Home Run Derby, as it ranks seventh in Baseball Savant’s Park Factor rating and No. 8 for home runs. Based on Baseball Savant’s rankings – where the average park factor is 100 – Citizens Bank Park has a home run factor of 110 in the 2026 season, which means 10 percent more home runs were observed at Citizens Bank Park than the average MLB stadium.

However, left-handed hitters have a home run factor of 115 in Philly in 2026 while righties sit at just 104. It’s not a huge advantage, but it’s certainly something to consider when betting on this event.

Schwarber has been a home-run machine all season long, and he enters the 2026 Home Run Derby with eight long balls in the last 28 days, hitting .274 over that stretch.

I think he’s worth a bet to win, and I expect him to at least advance through the first round. I don’t mind taking the Phillies star to hit OVER 10.5 homers in round one as an exciting side bet.

Pick(s): Schwarber to Win (+310); Schwarber Round 1 Homers OVER 10.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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