Mac's Sunday Slate: 5 Best Bets for NFL Week 4

Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season is here! We have a loaded slate of games to watch and bet on today, and it's the last slate of games before BYE weeks begin, so let's make the most of it.

Throughout the week I give you my favorite bets for each game in the Road to 272 Bets and the Player Prop Countdown, but unfortunately the odds move throughout the week so some bets I've placed no longer have valued wit the lines having moved.

That's what my Sunday Slate is for. If you're one of those people who don't like to lock in your bets until Sunday morning, I'm here to break down five plays I'm on that I still think have value as of today. Let's dive into them.

5 Best NFL Bets Today

Ravens -11.5 (-106) vs. Titans via Caesars
Jaguars +2.5 (-102) vs. Bengals via BetMGM
Michael Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+215) via DraftKings
Chiefs vs. Raiders UNDER 47.5 (-105) via FanDuel
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 94.5 Rushing Yards (-114) via FanDuel

Best Bet No. 1: Ravens -11.5 (-106)

I told myself after Week 1 that I was done betting on the Titans moving forward, and then I went against my word and bet on them to beat the Giants, only for Cam Ward to hand the game to New York on a baffling last-second interception.

Enough is enough, I'm done betting on Tennessee.

The Ravens are 2-1 to start the season, but oddly enough, they have had some bad luck. All the underlying metrics show they should've beaten the Saints in Week 2 and should've steamrolled the Cowboys in Week 3. They're fourth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA per play, and Lamar Jackson has returned to MVP form.

I want know part of betting on the Titans and hoping they can cover this number against Baltimore.

Best Bet No. 2: Jaguars +2.5 (-102)

I was high on the Jaguars heading into this season, and they have done nothing but impress, whereas the Bengals haven't lived up to my expectations through the first three weeks.

The Jaguars have been one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL through the first three weeks, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA per play. The Chiefs are the only other team in the league that ranks inside the top six in both metrics.

The Bengals are one step below the Jaguars, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play and 10th in defensive EPA per play. I also have some concerns about Joe Burrow, who has been good but not great so far this season, ranking 16th in adjusted EPA per play.

With the Bengals being 2.5-point home favorites, that tells me the betting market believes this would be a near coin flip at a neutral site. I disagree with that. By my evaluation, the Jaguars are the better team, so I'll back Jacksonville as the road underdog.

Best Bet No. 3: Michael Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+215)

It's time for us to stop looking at Marvin Harrison Jr. as the No. 1 target at wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals. He's had a slow start to the season, and his numbers reflect that. Meanwhile, Michael Wilson has racked up 31 targets through the first three weeks, which is the fifth-most targets amongst all pass-catchers across the league. He and the rest of the Cardinals now get to face a Giants defense that ranks 27th in opponent dropback EPA and 23rd in opponent dropback success rate. That could lead to big things for the Arizona wide receiver.

Best Bet No. 4: Chiefs vs. Raiders UNDER 47.5 (-105)

The Raiders' defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL to start the year, ranking second in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate. They've also allowed just 5.2 yards per snap.

The Kansas City defense has also been elite, ranking third in opponent yards per play (4.7), while also ranking sixth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

I understand this is a game that Patrick Mahomes will be playing in, but other than that, I'm surprised by the total of 47.5. Both defenses have been top-10 units, so I expect this total to go UNDER.

Best Bet No. 5: Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 94.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Jahmyr Gibbs has been unbelievable to start the season, including hitting 99+ yards on the ground in two of the first three games. He is going to eat again on Sunday night when he and the Lions take on a Panthers team that has struggled to stop the run this season. Carolina has given up 5.7 yards per rush, the highest mark in the NFL. Unless they fix something in a hurry, Gibbs is going to run all over them.

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