Mac's Sunday Slate: Best NFL Bets for Week 7

Every week of the NFL season, I give you my favorite bets of the week. The Road to 272 Bets comes out on Tuesday mornings, which has my favorite sides and totals, and the Player Prop Countdown comes out on Thursdays, which is where I give my favorite player props.

The problem is, lines move throughout the week, so if you wait until Sunday to bet, the lines will be different from when I originally released my articles for most of my bets. That's where the Sunday slate comes in.

Here, I give you my five overall best bets based on the widely available odds on Sunday morning. For Sunday morning bettors, here are my favorite plays for today.

5 Best NFL Bets Today

49ers -2.5 (-110) vs. Falcons via BetMGM
Bryce Young UNDER 258.5 Passing Yards (-110) via BetMGM
Rams -3.5 (-102) vs. Raiders via FanDuel
Bo Nix OVER 1.5 Pass TDs (+110) via BetMGM
Chiefs +130 vs. Seahawks via FanDuel

Best Bet No. 1: 49ers -2.5 (-110) vs. Falcons

Until the Falcons' secondary gets healthy, they're going to get torched by any competent quarterback, and this week they have to take on an MVP candidate in Brock Purdy, which will be the Falcons' toughest test yet.

I also have some concerns about Michael Penix Jr. After a few strong starts to begin his 2026 season, his accuracy issues have shown up again, and his completion percentage over expected numbers has been dreadful the past two weeks.

The Falcons are in over their head in this game, and I'm surprised the line is set at less than a field goal.

Best Bet No. 2: Bryce Young UNDER 257.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Bryce Young has taken a massive leap forward this season. He went from averaging never averaging more than 188 passing yards per game in his career, to all of a sudden averaging 309.8 passing yards per game this season. He has all of a sudden become an elite quarterback, or has his production been an anomaly due to playing bad defenses, and will he come back down to earth? I'm willing to bet on the latter being the case.

He now has to face a defense that's seventh in opponent dropback EPA while allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. I'm going to fade him on Sunday.

Best Bet No. 3: Rams -3.5 (-102) vs. Raiders

I know that the Rams now have a laundry list of injuries on top of looking extremely lackluster to begin the season, but I still think this is a good price to bet on them against the Raiders.

Las Vegas may have fooled us earlier in the year into making us think they're a potential playoff team, and even their recent losses made them look like a respectable squad. Unfortunately, I'm completely out on them. Their underlying metrics are huge red flags entering Week 7. They rank 26th in net yards per play (-0.7), 25th in opponent EPA, and 27th in opponent success rate.

Kirk Cousins has looked great for them at quarterback, but if he stops producing at a high level, their results are going to fall off a cliff due to their inability to run the ball. They rank just 27th in rush EPA and 29th in rush success rate.

It's time to buy back in on the Rams.

Best Bet No. 4: Bo Nix OVER 1.5 Pass TDs (+110)

I understand the Bo Nix narrative heading into this week, but we have to cut him a little bit of slack. He has had to face a murderers' row of defenses this season, including the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. He now gets to face by far the easiest defense he's faced this season.

The Cardinals rank 30th in opponent dropback EPA, 25th in opponent dropback success rate, and they've allowed 16 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. At plus-money, I'll jump all over him to throw for at least two scores on Sunday.

Best Bet No. 5: Chiefs +130 vs. Seahawks

I'm starting to have some very real concerns about the Seahawks' offense, starting with Sam Darnold. Entering Week 7, he ranks 27th in adjusted EPA per play and 16th in completion percentage over expected, far worse than where he ranked in those two metrics during their Super Bowl run a year ago.

I could look past that if they were able to run the ball successfully, but they can't do that either, ranking last in rush EPA and 25th in rush success rate. That leaves them with little answer on offense outside of throwing the ball at Jaxson Smith-Njigba and hoping he can work his magic.

Meanwhile, in case you didn't already know, the Chiefs are back. They're first in the league in net yards per play (+1.9) and the only team to rank in the top five in offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate, and defensive success rate.

I'll take the Chiefs to win outright on Sunday Night Football.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Find Iain's bets, where he placed them, and how to tail them on Juice Reel.

With the latest FanDuel promo code new-user offer, you will get $50 in bonus bets for seven straight days when you place a daily $5 wager. Create your new FanDuel account today to lock in this impressive $350 welcome offer from one of the top sportsbooks in the nation.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google