Mac's Sunday Slate: Best NFL Bets for Week 9

Throughout this year's NFL season, I release my favorite bets and break them down in two feature articles. The Road to 272 Bets comes out on Tuesday mornings and includes my favorite bets on a side or total for every game. The Player Prop Countdown then comes out on Thursdays, which is where I break down my favorite player props.

Unfortunately, I'm aware that the majority of bettors will place their wagers until Sunday morning, and by that time, a lot of the odds from the bets I gave out earlier in the week have moved. That's why I write Mac's Sunday Slate. In this article, I'm going to break down my favorite plays based on odds that haven't moved and are still widely available before kickoff this morning.

5 Best NFL Bets Today

Broncos -2.5 (-118) vs. Panthers (BetMGM)
Cowboys -4.5 (-108) vs. Colts (BetMGM)
Joe Milton Longest Completion OVER 31.5 Yards -102 (FanDuel)
Jayden Daniels OVER 0.5 Interceptions +124 (FanDuel)
Buccaneers +225 vs. Bears (Caesars)

Best Bet No. 1: Broncos -2.5 (-118) vs. Panthers

There has been a lot of discourse about the Denver Broncos continuing to find ways to win games that some would argue they don't deserve to win. While that may be true, let's take note that they've had the single most difficult schedule in the NFL this season so far. Sure, they've barely squeaked out wins, but they've played against the likes of the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, and Chiefs again. Their only games against bad teams came against the Chargers and Cardinals; in both games, they won comfortably.

They now get to take on a Panthers team that has struggled the past two weeks. Bryce Young isn't as good as he looked early in the season, and this is going to be the best defense he will have faced so far this season.

Denver is going to remind people that, even if they're not a true Super Bowl contender, they're still a significant step above teams at the Panthers' level.

Best Bet No. 2: Cowboys -4.5 (-108) vs. Colts

I'm going to break my own rule of betting against the Cowboys any time that they're laying points. It makes sense in a lot of situations, but the Colts are the worst team in the entire NFL and are actively getting worse as they continue to sell all their assets. They currently rank dead last in the league in net yards per play at -1.4.

As bad as the Dallas defense is, I'm not willing to bet on the Colts being able to take advantage, considering they rank 31st in the league in EPA per play.

The Cowboys' biggest defensive weakness is their secondary, which is good news for Dallas since they should be able to do an effective job of stopping the run, the Colts' only path to moving the ball.

The Cowboys' top five offense is good enough to lead them to this win.

Best Bet No. 3: Joe Milton Longest Completion OVER 31.5 Yards -102

If there's one thing we know about Joe Milton, it's that he has a rocket arm and he loves the deep ball. In his few NFL appearances so far in his career, he has an aDOT of 10.05 and a 16.7% deep-throw rate. In his time as a Tennessee Volunteer, he had a deep-throw rate of 34.1%. The guy is gonna toss bombs on Sunday, especially if the Eagles find themselves playing catch-up.

Best Bet No. 4: Jayden Daniels OVER 0.5 Interceptions +124

Jayden Daniels' passing numbers haven't been impressive this season. In fact, his 17.6% bad throw rate is the fifth-lowest among all quarterbacks this season. He now faces a Rams defense that has done a great job forcing interceptions this season, averaging 0.9 per game. I'm surprised we can bet on this at +124 odds.

Best Bet No. 5: Buccaneers +225 vs. Bears

You can win a lot of games in the National Football League if you can run the ball effectively and play elite defense, and that's exactly what the Buccaneers have been doing. In fact, they shut the Falcons out last week without completing a single pass.

They now enter this week ranked inside the top seven in every rushing metric, second in opponent EPA per play, and third in opponent success rate. We don't currently know what sort of form Baker Mayfield is in, but if he's in peak form when the Bucs need him to take to the air, Tampa Bay is going to be an extremely dangerous team.

I have little bad to say about the Bears, who have proven my preseason evaluation wrong. What I do think is that this is a sell-high spot on a short week after an emotional win on Monday Night Football.

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